Table 2 Risk-Adjusted Occurrence of Unplanned Events and Medicare Payments per Month

Prob (ED = 1) per month (%)

 Baseline

2.02 (1.87, 2.17)

2.21 (2.06, 2.37)

2.32 (2.20, 2.45)

3.50 (3.37, 3.64)

 Study Period

0.77 (0.65, 0.88)

1.23 (1.10, 1.37)

2.01 (1.87, 2.15)

3.52 (3.36, 3.68)

 Difference

-1.25 (-1.52, -0.99) ^a

-0.98 (-1.27, -0.69) ^a

-0.31 (-0.58, -0.05) ^a

0.02 (-0.28, 0.3)

# of ED per 1,000 patients per month

 Baseline

22.5 (20.8, 24.3)

24.6 (22.8, 26.4)

26.1 (24.5, 27.6)

40.1 (38.4, 41.7)

 Study Period

8.2 (6.9, 9.5)

13.2 (11.6, 14.7)

21.9 (20.3, 23.5)

41.8 (39.6, 43.9)

 Difference

-14.3 (-17.4, -11.3) ^a

-11.4 (-14.8, -8.1) ^a

-4.2 (-7.3, -1) ^a

1.7 (-2.1, 5.5)

Prob (Hospitalization = 1) per month (%)

 Baseline

0.98 (0.88, 1.10)

1.14 (1.03, 1.25)

1.13 (1.04, 1.22)

1.55 (1.46, 1.63)

 Study Period

0.46 (0.37, 0.55)

0.69 (0.58, 0.79)

1.03 (0.92, 1.13)

1.87 (1.78, 1.99)

 Difference

-0.52 (-0.73, -0.33) ^b

-0.45 (-0.67, -0.24) ^a

-0.1 (-0.3, 0.09)

0.32 (0.15, 0.53) ^b

# of Hospitalization per 1,000 patients per month

 Baseline

11.0 (9.7, 12.3)

12.7 (11.4, 14.0)

12.9 (11.7, 14.1)

17.8 (16.8, 18.9)

 Study Period

5.5 (4.3, 6.7)

8.1 (6.7, 9.4)

12.3 (10.9, 13.7)

23.0 (21.4, 24.6)

 Difference

-5.5 (-8, -3) ^a

-4.6 (-7.3, -2) ^a

-0.6 (-3.2, 2)

5.2 (2.5, 7.8) ^a

$ Unplanned payment per patient per month

 Baseline

4772 (4283, 5260)

7326 (6590, 8062)

7184 (6467, 7901)

13,449 (12,167, 14,731)

 Study Period

1896 (1700, 2092)

3778 (3393, 4163)

4838 (4350, 5325)

12,588 (11,365, 13,790)

 Difference

-2876 (-3560, -2191) ^a

-3548 (-4669, -2427) ^a

-2346 (-3551, -1142) ^a

-861 (-3366, 1623)