Table 1 Base-case model variables and ranges used in a sensitivity analysis

Transition Probabilities (12 months)

 Probability of the composite of complete or partial remission by different drugs

  rituximab

0.60

0.4809–0.7190

[19]

  cyclosporine

0.52

0.3985–0.6415

[17]

  tacrolimus-rituximab

0.51

0.36–0.66

[18]

  cyclophosphamide

0.79

0.67–0.90

[18]

 Probability of relapse by different drugs

  rituximab

0.051

0.0353–0.667

[17]

  cyclosporine

0.529

0.3612–0.6968

[17]

  tacrolimus-rituximab

0.12

0.023–0.22

[18]

  cyclophosphamide

0.027

0.01–0.06

[18]

 Probability of remission to ESRD by different drugs

  rituximab

0.01

0–0.1

[20]

  cyclosporine

0.023

0–0.1

[23]

  tacrolimus-rituximab

0.0175

0–0.1

[25]

  cyclophosphamide

0.023

0–0.1

[7]

 Probability of active disease to ESRD

0.067

0–0.1

[7, 21, 22]

 Probability of active disease or of remission to death

  50–60 years old

0.01

0–0.1

[27]

  61–70 years old

0.016

0–0.1

[27]

  71–80 years old

0.03

0–0.1

[27]

 Probability of ESRD to kidney transplant

0.03

0–0.1

[25, 26]

 Probability of dialysis to death

0.0422

0–0.1

[25, 26]

 Probability of kidney transplant to death

0.017

0–0.1

[25, 26]

Cost

 price(specification/$)

  rituximab

100 mg/207.88

166.3–249.45

[28]

  cyclosporine capsule

50 mg/0.93

0.75–1.12

[28]

  tacrolimus capsule

1 mg/2.42

1.94–2.91

[28]

  cyclophosphamide tablets

50 mg/0.88

0.66–0.99

[28]

  methylprednisolone sodium succinate for injection

500 mg/17.96

14.36–21.55

[28]

  prednisone tablets

5 mg/0.02

0.01–0.02

[28]

 Other direct health care costs($)

  cost of dialysis

17,546.31/year

14,037–21,055

[26]

  cost of kidney transplant

First year24,187.52

Subsequent year 17,249.1

13,799–30,698

[26]

  cost of complete blood count (CBC)

7.58/time

6.06–9.09

[29]

  cost of monitoring drug concentration

13.53/time

10.82–16.23

[29]

  simple parenteral

2.97/time

2.37–3.56

[29]

  inpatient stay

8.92/day

7.13–10.7

[29]

 Costs related to adverse events($)

  minor infections

594.8

475.84–713.76

[29]

  infusion-related reaction

52.04

41.63–62.45

[29]

  pneumonia

594.8

475.84–713.76

[29]

  gastrointestinal manifestation

1040.9

832.72–1249.08

[29]

  leucopenia

297.4

237.92–356.88

[29]

 Health utility values in each state

  active disease

0.746

0.6714–0.8206

[30]

  remission

0.85

0.765–0.935

[30]

  dialysis

0.689

0.6201–0.7579

[31]

  kidney transplant

0.870

0.783–0.957

[31]

  dead

0

0