Table 1 Input values and distributions used in the base case and sensitivity analysis

 Population size by age

see reference

[14]

 IFR in Germany

0.0075 (0.005 – 0.01)

[48]

 CFR in Germany

[39,40,41]

 Total population

0.042

 0-9 years

0.00009

 10-19 years

0.00005

 20-29 years

0.00022

 ;

 30-39 years

0.00070

 40-49 years

0.0025

 ;

 50-59 years

0.0095

 60-69 years

0.048

 70-79 years

0.16

 80-89 years

0.28

 ;

 90+ years

0.33

 Probability of ICU indication

0.04 (0.04 – 0.08)

[39,40,41]

 False-positive ICU admissions

0.1 (0.1 – 0.2)

[2]

 CFR in the ICU

0.24 (0.23 – 0.25)

[39,40,41]

 CFR one year post ICU discharge

0.59 (0.47 – 0.73)

[8]

 Herd protection threshold

0.70 (0.60 – 0.70)

[28]

 Vaccine efficacy

0.5 – 1.0

[17]

 Immunity following one vaccination, years

5 (1 – 5)

[19, 30]

 GDP reduction per pandemic wave, %

1.8

[12, 13]

 GDP reduction without a second wave, %

5.0

[12, 13]

 GDP drop attributable to shutdown versus voluntary restrictions, %

100 (10 – 100)

Estimate

 German federal government subsidy for vaccine development

750,000,000

[16]

 Contribution of a shutdown to GDP reduction, %

30 (10 – 30)

[38]

 Vaccine costs per individual, €

8.47

[10]

 Vaccination costs per individual, €

7.95

[29]