Fig. 1

Simplified diagram of the Markov model. The oval boxes represent the different health states in the model, including two absorbing health states (CHC-related and CHC-unrelated deaths; the latter is not represented in the diagram for simplification purposes) and the following transient health states: fibrosis stages F0 to F3 (measured using the METAVIR scoring system), CC, DC and HCC. At model entry (CHC infection), all patients had a detectable viral load and were at the F0, F1, F2, F3 or CC stages. Arrows on full lines denote the transitions between health states according to treatment decision (i.e., whether patients received treatment or not) and treatment success (i.e., whether patients achieved SVR after treatment or not). The disease progression stops in all cured patients (i.e., who achieved SVR) except in patients in the CC health state at the end of the treatment cycle. Patients in the F3, CC, DC and HCC health states had a risk of CHC-related death. In addition, patients had a risk of CHC-unrelated death in all health states, corresponding to the “natural mortality” rate, which depends on age, gender and country. Arrows on dashed lines show reinfection in patients who achieved SVR. Abbreviation: CC, Compensated Cirrhosis; CHC, Chronic Hepatitis C; CHC RD, Chronic hepatitis C-related death; DC, Decompensated Cirrhosis; F0-F3, METAVIR fibrosis stages F0 to F3; HCC, Hepatocellular Carcinoma; SVR, Sustainable Virologic Response