Table 1 Input parameters for the cost-effectiveness model

Age Specific Incidence Rates

–

–

–

Demographic Epidemiological Model of Singapore, DEMOS [28]

 35–39

0.000617

 40–44

0.001114

 45–49

0.001733

 50–54

0.001775

 55–59

0.002073

 60–64

0.002119

 65–69

0.002056

 70–74

0.002063

 75–79

0.001974

 80–84

0.001710

 > = 85

0.001530

Annual discount rate for costs and benefits

0.03

–

–

–

Haackeret al. (2020) [32]

Stage Specific Mortality Rates

–

–

–

Singapore Cancer Registry Annual Registry Report 2015 [2]

 Stage I

0.020

 Stage II

0.044

 Stage III

0.083

 Stage IV

0.268

All-Cause Mortality Rate

0.002896

–

–

–

Singstat Life Tables [33]

Polygenic Risk Distribution

–

–

–

Study team’s unpublished data

 Low

0.51

 Intermediate

0.41

 High

0.08

Breast Cancer Stage Distribution (Screened/Unscreened)

–

–

–

Wong (2019) [29]

 Stage I

0.53/0.22

 Stage II

0.43/0.57

 Stage III

0.03/0.12

 Stage IV

0.01/0.09

Stage Specific Utility Values

Beta

Wong (2019) [29]

 Healthy

1.000

1.000

1.000

 Stage I

0.731

0.63

0.83

 Stage II

0.731

0.63

0.63

 Stage III

0.599

0.499

0.599

 Stage IV

0.352

0.252

0.452

Risk Group Multiplier

–

–

–

–

 High

2

 Intermediate

1

 Low

0.5

Mammogram & Ultrasound Sensitivity

0.8

–

–

–

[27,28,29,30]

Stage Specific Direct Medical Costs (SGD)

Gamma

Wong (2019) [29]

 Stage I

63,983.00

44,788.10

83,177.90

 Stage II

78,226.00

54,758.20

101,693.80

 Stage III

91,129.00

63,790.30

118,467.70

 Stage IV

110,136.00

77,095.20

143,175.80

Cost of Buccal Swab (SGD)

210.00

122.50

227.50

Gamma

Local Singapore Hospitals, Wong (2019) [29]

Cost of Mammogram (SGD)

110.00

87.50

162.50

Gamma

Local Singapore Hospitals, Wong (2018) [20], Wong (2019) [29]

Cost of Ultrasound (SGD)

230.00

161.00

299.00

Gamma

Local Singapore hospitals, Wong (2019) [29]

Cost of Questionnaire (SGD)

2.00

1.40

2.60

Gamma

Sun et al. (2018) [19]