Table 6 PRIMEtime CE sources and uncertainty distributions for baseline population data, costs, and utilities. All inputs are age and sex specific

English population

From Office for National Statistics census data, no uncertainty estimated [75].

Mortality rates

Extracted from the Human Mortality Database, no uncertainty estimated [76].

Health sector costs

Disease specific costs derived from NHS England programme budgeting data [77] and unrelated disease costs estimated using NHS England cost curves [78]. Using the same approach as Blakely et al., [34] health sector costs are assumed to be “moderately uncertain”, and therefore uncertainty is estimated using a generic multiplication factor across all health sector costs with a gamma distribution based on a normal distribution (mean 1, SD 0.1).

Societal costs

Disease specific and unrelated productivity, social care, and wider societal costs estimated using a Department of Health tool published as a supplementary file in Claxton et al [79]. As with health sector costs, uncertainty estimated using a generic multiplication factor across all societal costs with a gamma distribution based on a normal distribution (mean 1, SD 0.1).

Utilities

Baseline mean EQ-5D utility scores and disease specific decrements and their standard errors taken from Sullivan et al., with adjustments made for age and number of chronic conditions [80].