Table 2 PRIMEtime CE risk factors directly related to disease, exposure parameters, outcomes, and modelled uncertainty distributions. Adapted and updated from Cobiac et al.[32] Dietary relative risks adjusted for energy intake where possible
Risk factors | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter | Exposure parameters | Outcomes | Unit of change | Distribution of uncertainty range | Relative risk (SE) | Notes |
 Fruit | Mean (SD) g/day for consumers and % consuming < 1 fruit portion daily from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) [49]. Theoretical ideal: 300 (30) g/day [50] | CHD [51] | Per 106 g/day fruit | Lognormal | 0.93 (0.019) |  |
Stroke [52] | Per 106 g/day fruit | Lognormal | 0.89 (0.023) |  | ||
Lung cancer [53] | Per 100 g/day fruit | Lognormal | 0.94 (0.02) |  | ||
 Vegetables | Mean (SD) g/day for consumers and % consuming < 1 vegetable portion daily from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 400 (30) g/day [50] | CHD [51] | Per 106 g/day vegetables | Lognormal | 0.89 (0.034) |  |
Lung cancer [53] | Per 100 g/day vegetables | Lognormal | 0.94 (0.025) |  | ||
 Fibre (cereal only) | Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49] | CHD [54] | Per 10 g/day fibre (cereal) | Lognormal | 0.91 (0.02) | Cereals only to avoid double counting for fruit and vegetables |
 Fibre | Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 30 (3) g/ day [50] | Breast cancer [55] | Per 10 g/day fibre | Lognormal | 0.93 (0.027) |  |
Colorectal cancer [56] | Per 10 g/day fibre | Lognormal | 0.90 (0.034) |  | ||
Stomach cancer [57] | Per 10 g/day fibre | Lognormal | 0.56 (0.12) |  | ||
 Red meat intake | Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 100 (10) g/ week [50] | Colorectal cancer [58] | Per 100 g/day red meat | Lognormal | 1.30 (0.06) |  |
Stomach cancer [59] | Per 100 g/day red meat | Lognormal | 1.13 (0.036) |  | ||
Type two diabetes [60] | Per 100 g/day red meat | Lognormal | 1.20 (0.072) |  | ||
 Processed meat intake | Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 0 g/day [50] | Colorectal cancer [58] | Per 50 g/day processed meat | Lognormal | 1.38 (0.07) |  |
Type two diabetes [60] | Per 50 g/day processed meat | Lognormal | 1.57 (0.1) |  | ||
 Serum cholesterol | Mean (SD) mmol/L from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 3.8 (0.6) mmol/L [61] | CHD [62] | Per -1 mmol/l total cholesterol | Lognormal | < 49 years: 0.44 (0.034) 50–59 years: 0.58 (0.034) 60–69 years: 0.72 (0.018) 70–79 years: 0.82 (0.015) 80+ years: 0.85 (0.21) |  |
Stroke [62] | Per -1 mmol/l total cholesterol | Lognormal | < 59 years: 0.90 (0.037) 60–69 years: 1.02 (0.027) 70–79 years: 1.04 (0.025) 80+ years: 1.06 (0.031) |  | ||
 Systolic blood pressure | Mean (SD) mmHg from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 115 (6) mmHg [61] | CHD [63] | Per -20 mmHg systolic blood pressure | Lognormal | < 49 years: 0.49 (0.042) 50–59 years: 0.50 (0.015) 60–69 years: 0.54 (0.0094) 70–79 years: 0.60 (0.013) 80+ years: 0.67 (0.023) |  |
Stroke [63] | Per -20 mmHg systolic blood pressure | Lognormal | < 49 years: 0.36 (0.057) 50–59 years: 0.38 (0.034) 60–69 years: 0.43 (0.024) 70–79 years: 0.50 (0.02) 80+ years: 0.67 (0.03) |  | ||
 Body mass index | Mean (SD) kg/m2 from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 21 (1) kg/m2 [61] | CHD [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | 35–59 years: 1.50 (0.039) 60–69 years: 1.40 (0.031) 70–79 years: 1.31 (0.033) 80–89 years: 1.30 (0.055) |  |
Stroke [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | 35–59 years: 1.76 (0.075) 60–69 years: 1.49 (0.056) 70–79 years: 1.33 (0.056) 80–89 years: 1.10 (0.083) |  | ||
Diabetes [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | BMI 15–25: 0.96 (0.25) BMI 25–50: 2.16 (0.067) |  | ||
Pancreas cancer [65] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | 1.10 (0.016) |  | ||
Colorectal cancer [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | Men: 1.24 (0.016) Women: 1.09 (0.019) |  | ||
Breast cancer [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | Women 60+ years: 1.12 (0.018) |  | ||
Kidney cancer [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | Men: 1.24 (0.039) Women: 1.34 (0.034) |  | ||
Liver cancer [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | 1.47 (0.078) |  | ||
Liver cirrhosis [64] | Per 5 kg/m2 BMI | Lognormal | BMI 15–25: 0.73 (0.016) BMI 25–50: 1.79 (0.077) |  | ||
 Diabetes | Prevalence | CHD [66] | If have diabetes compared to no diabetes | Lognormal | Men: 1.85 (0.063) Women: 2.63 (0.076) |  |
Stroke [67] | If have diabetes compared to no diabetes | Lognormal | Men: 1.83 (0.067) Women: 2.28 (0.085) | Â | ||
 Physical activity | Mean (SD) MET hours per week from Active People’s Survey [68] | CHD [69] | 11.25METhr/wk. increase | Normal | −0.204 (0.027) | Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI. |
Stroke [69] | 11.25METhr/wk. increase | Normal | −0.195 (0.041) | Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI. | ||
Diabetes [69] | 11.25METhr/wk. increase | Normal | −0.240 (0.023) | Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI. | ||
Colorectal cancer [70] | 11.25METhr/wk. increase | Normal | −0.080 (0.059) | Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI. | ||
Breast cancer [70] | 11.25METhr/wk. increase | Normal | −0.053 (0.023) | Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI. | ||