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Table 2 PRIMEtime CE risk factors directly related to disease, exposure parameters, outcomes, and modelled uncertainty distributions. Adapted and updated from Cobiac et al.[32] Dietary relative risks adjusted for energy intake where possible

From: PRIMEtime CE: a multistate life table model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions affecting diet and physical activity

Risk factors
Parameter Exposure parameters Outcomes Unit of change Distribution of uncertainty range Relative risk (SE) Notes
 Fruit Mean (SD) g/day for consumers and % consuming < 1 fruit portion daily from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) [49]. Theoretical ideal: 300 (30) g/day [50] CHD [51] Per 106 g/day fruit Lognormal 0.93 (0.019)  
Stroke [52] Per 106 g/day fruit Lognormal 0.89 (0.023)  
Lung cancer [53] Per 100 g/day fruit Lognormal 0.94 (0.02)  
 Vegetables Mean (SD) g/day for consumers and % consuming < 1 vegetable portion daily from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 400 (30) g/day [50] CHD [51] Per 106 g/day vegetables Lognormal 0.89 (0.034)  
Lung cancer [53] Per 100 g/day vegetables Lognormal 0.94 (0.025)  
 Fibre (cereal only) Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49] CHD [54] Per 10 g/day fibre (cereal) Lognormal 0.91 (0.02) Cereals only to avoid double counting for fruit and vegetables
 Fibre Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 30 (3) g/ day [50] Breast cancer [55] Per 10 g/day fibre Lognormal 0.93 (0.027)  
Colorectal cancer [56] Per 10 g/day fibre Lognormal 0.90 (0.034)  
Stomach cancer [57] Per 10 g/day fibre Lognormal 0.56 (0.12)  
 Red meat intake Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 100 (10) g/ week [50] Colorectal cancer [58] Per 100 g/day red meat Lognormal 1.30 (0.06)  
Stomach cancer [59] Per 100 g/day red meat Lognormal 1.13 (0.036)  
Type two diabetes [60] Per 100 g/day red meat Lognormal 1.20 (0.072)  
 Processed meat intake Mean (SD) g/day from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 0 g/day [50] Colorectal cancer [58] Per 50 g/day processed meat Lognormal 1.38 (0.07)  
Type two diabetes [60] Per 50 g/day processed meat Lognormal 1.57 (0.1)  
 Serum cholesterol Mean (SD) mmol/L from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 3.8 (0.6) mmol/L [61] CHD [62] Per -1 mmol/l total cholesterol Lognormal < 49 years: 0.44 (0.034) 50–59 years: 0.58 (0.034) 60–69 years: 0.72 (0.018) 70–79 years: 0.82 (0.015) 80+ years: 0.85 (0.21)  
Stroke [62] Per -1 mmol/l total cholesterol Lognormal < 59 years: 0.90 (0.037) 60–69 years: 1.02 (0.027) 70–79 years: 1.04 (0.025) 80+ years: 1.06 (0.031)  
 Systolic blood pressure Mean (SD) mmHg from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 115 (6) mmHg [61] CHD [63] Per -20 mmHg systolic blood pressure Lognormal < 49 years: 0.49 (0.042) 50–59 years: 0.50 (0.015) 60–69 years: 0.54 (0.0094) 70–79 years: 0.60 (0.013) 80+ years: 0.67 (0.023)  
Stroke [63] Per -20 mmHg systolic blood pressure Lognormal < 49 years: 0.36 (0.057) 50–59 years: 0.38 (0.034) 60–69 years: 0.43 (0.024) 70–79 years: 0.50 (0.02) 80+ years: 0.67 (0.03)  
 Body mass index Mean (SD) kg/m2 from NDNS [49]. Theoretical ideal: 21 (1) kg/m2 [61] CHD [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal 35–59 years: 1.50 (0.039) 60–69 years: 1.40 (0.031) 70–79 years: 1.31 (0.033) 80–89 years: 1.30 (0.055)  
Stroke [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal 35–59 years: 1.76 (0.075) 60–69 years: 1.49 (0.056) 70–79 years: 1.33 (0.056) 80–89 years: 1.10 (0.083)  
Diabetes [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal BMI 15–25: 0.96 (0.25) BMI 25–50: 2.16 (0.067)  
Pancreas cancer [65] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal 1.10 (0.016)  
Colorectal cancer [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal Men: 1.24 (0.016) Women: 1.09 (0.019)  
Breast cancer [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal Women 60+ years: 1.12 (0.018)  
Kidney cancer [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal Men: 1.24 (0.039) Women: 1.34 (0.034)  
Liver cancer [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal 1.47 (0.078)  
Liver cirrhosis [64] Per 5 kg/m2 BMI Lognormal BMI 15–25: 0.73 (0.016) BMI 25–50: 1.79 (0.077)  
 Diabetes Prevalence CHD [66] If have diabetes compared to no diabetes Lognormal Men: 1.85 (0.063) Women: 2.63 (0.076)  
Stroke [67] If have diabetes compared to no diabetes Lognormal Men: 1.83 (0.067) Women: 2.28 (0.085)  
 Physical activity Mean (SD) MET hours per week from Active People’s Survey [68] CHD [69] 11.25METhr/wk. increase Normal −0.204 (0.027) Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI.
Stroke [69] 11.25METhr/wk. increase Normal −0.195 (0.041) Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI.
Diabetes [69] 11.25METhr/wk. increase Normal −0.240 (0.023) Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI.
Colorectal cancer [70] 11.25METhr/wk. increase Normal −0.080 (0.059) Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI.
Breast cancer [70] 11.25METhr/wk. increase Normal −0.053 (0.023) Parameter is the beta value of the 0.25 transformation of the relative risk, unadjusted for BMI.
  1. SD standard deviation, NDNS National Diet and Nutrition Survey, CHD coronary heart disease, BMI body mass index, MET Metabolic Equivalent of Task