BMC Health Services Research

Table 3 External validation and recalibration of models predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality

From: Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality

		In-hospital mortality					30-day mortality
			Validation		Recalibration			Validation		Recalibration
Model	N	Deaths included	AUC (95% CI)	H-L p- value	AUC (95% CI)	H-L p-value	Deaths included	AUC (95% CI)	H-L p-value	AUC (95% CI)	H-L p-value
POSSUM	2119	27/41	74.8 (65.6–84.0)	< 0.001	^a75.6 (66.3–84.9)	0.548	32/47	76.3 (68.2–84.3)	< 0.001	^a77.0 (68.9–85.2)	0.250
P-POSSUM	2119	27/41	75.7 (66.4–85.0)	< 0.001	^a75.6 (66.3–84.9)	0.548		77.1 (68.9–85.2)	< 0.001	^a77.0 (68.9–85.2)	0.250
CR-POSSUM	2293	38/41	73.6 (65.2–82.1)	< 0.001	75.5 (67.3–83.7)	0.261	45/47	73.2 (65.9–80.6)	< 0.001	74.2 (67.1–81.2)	0.463
AFC	1465	23/41	NA	NA	68.2 (56.6–79.7)	0.994	26/47	NA	NA	68.6 (58.0–79.1)	0.984
IRCS	2653	38/47	74.4 (65.8–83.1)	< 0.001	76.2 (68.0–84.5)	0.853	44/47	72.9 (65.3–80.4)	< 0.001	74.5 (67.1–81.9)	0.904

AUC Area under the curve, H-L Hosmer-Lemeshow, NA Not available, ^aThe equations for POSSUM and P-POSSUM are the same in the recalibration process

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