Table 3 External validation and recalibration of models predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality

Model

N

Deaths included

AUC (95% CI)

H-L p- value

AUC (95% CI)

H-L p-value

Deaths included

AUC (95% CI)

H-L p-value

AUC (95% CI)

H-L p-value

POSSUM

2119

27/41

74.8 (65.6–84.0)

< 0.001

^a75.6 (66.3–84.9)

0.548

32/47

76.3 (68.2–84.3)

< 0.001

^a77.0 (68.9–85.2)

0.250

P-POSSUM

2119

27/41

75.7 (66.4–85.0)

< 0.001

77.1 (68.9–85.2)

< 0.001

CR-POSSUM

2293

38/41

73.6 (65.2–82.1)

< 0.001

75.5 (67.3–83.7)

0.261

45/47

73.2 (65.9–80.6)

< 0.001

74.2 (67.1–81.2)

0.463

AFC

1465

23/41

NA

NA

68.2 (56.6–79.7)

0.994

26/47

NA

NA

68.6 (58.0–79.1)

0.984

IRCS

2653

38/47

74.4 (65.8–83.1)

< 0.001

76.2 (68.0–84.5)

0.853

44/47

72.9 (65.3–80.4)

< 0.001

74.5 (67.1–81.9)

0.904