The impact of the affordable care Act (ACA) on favorable risk selection and Beneficiaries’ health status in Medicare advantage: a preliminary assessment

Table 2 First Objective - Favorable risk selection in enrollment

Dependent Variable	Focal Variable^a	Model 1^b	Model 2^c	Model 3^d
Dependent Variable	Focal Variable^a	Effect^e (SE)	Effect^e (SE)	Effect^e (SE)
Self-Rated Health (SRH)	Secular Trend	0.002 (0.001)	−0.005 (0.001)^***	0.008 (0.001)^***
Self-Rated Health (SRH)	Policy Measure	0.020 (0.001)^***	0.014 (0.001)^***	0.003 (0.001)^**
Falls	Secular Trend	1.020 (0.002)^***	1.025 (0.002)^***	1.003 (0.003)
Falls	Policy Measure	0.976 (0.003)^***	0.975 (0.003)^***	0.981 (0.003)^***
Balance Problems	Secular Trend	1.022 (0.002)^***	1.032 (0.002)^***	0.994 (0.003)^*
Balance Problems	Policy Measure	0.984 (0.003)^***	0.986 (0.003)^***	1.006 (0.004)
Falls Management	Secular Trend	1.043 (0.002)^***	1.057 (0.002)^***	1.044 (0.003)^***
Falls Management	Policy Measure	1.006 (0.003)^*	1.009 (0.003)^**	1.040 (0.003)^***
Frailty/disability	Secular Trend	1.025 (0.001)^***	1.033 (0.001)^***	1.013 (0.002)^***
Frailty/disability	Policy Measure	0.969 (0.002)^***	0.973 (0.002)^***	0.983 (0.002)^***
Morbidity Score	Secular Trend	1.011 (0.001)^***	1.013 (0.001)^***	1.008 (0.001)^***
Morbidity Score	Policy Measure	0.983 (0.002)^***	0.985 (0.002)^***	0.989 (0.002)^***

Significance level: * p-value <0.05; ** p-value <0.01; *** p-value <0.001. Due to space limitations, only focal variables of interest were displayed. Complete tables including coefficients of all included variables are available upon request
^aSecular Trend is a time-dependent indicator that captures any temporal changes in the outcomes of interest over time between 2007 and 2013; Policy Measure is the policy implementation measure (PIM) which reflects the changes in MA reimbursement
^bModel 1 includes (i) secular trend variable and (ii) policy effect
^cModel 2 includes (i), (ii), and (iii) demographics (age, sex, race-ethnicity, education, and marital status)
^dModel 3 includes (i), (ii), (iii), and (iv) health status (SRH, falls, balance problems, falls management, frailty [when Balance is the DV, ADL score is calculated excluding walking disability component], and morbidity). A health status adjustor variable is not included when it is the DV
^eBeta Coefficient Effect for OLS predicting SRH; Adjusted Odds Ratio [OR = Exp (B)] predicting falls, balance problems and falls management; Incidence Risk Ratio [IRR = Exp (B)] for Negative Binomial Regression predicting frailty and morbidity

ISSN: 1472-6963