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Table 6 Comparison of Monte Carlo simulation to standard approach. Waiting time (min)

From: How many operating rooms are needed to manage non-elective surgical cases? A Monte Carlo simulation study

4 ORs

 

Standard

Standard-Log

Monte Carlo

Emergent

Mean

16

9

11

Urgent1

Mean

23

12

15

Urgent2

Mean

38

18

23

Urgent3

Mean

61

26

34

Utilization (%)

 

55.9

47.9

54.7

3 ORs

    

Emergent

Mean

53

32

37

Urgent1

Mean

87

48

54

Urgent2

Mean

195

91

114

Urgent3

Mean

462

166

226

Utilization (%)

 

74.5

63.9

73.3

  1. The standard approach and Monte Carlo simulation used four (top) or three (bottom) operating rooms (ORs). Because the standard approach we used accepts a maximum of four urgency classes, we combined the 0–24 h urgency class with the add-on elective class for both Monte Carlo simulation and the standard approach. In the first column the surgical time was based on the mean of the actual surgical times of urgent cases for 1 year at our institution (plus 60 min preparation and clean-up time; total 244.76 min). The second column (Standard-Log) is based on a log transformation of the actual times (plus 60 min preparation and clean-up time; total 210 min). Note that the Monte Carlo simulation produced results closer to the log-transformed data. The standard approach produces mean values, but no variances because it is formulaic-based. The Monte Carlo data are from one simulation run, although the expected variation can be seen from the variation in the data of Table 2