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Table 1 Provider estimates of risk and proportion of inaccurate estimates

From: Physicians' ability to predict the risk of coronary heart disease

# Clinical history CHD 5-year risk* Mean/Median provider estimates of 5-year risk % of providers overestimating risk by more than 1.5x % of providers underestimating risk (ratio less than 0.67) % of providers who overestimate risk by >= 10 percentage points % of providers who underestimate risk by < 10 percentage points % of providers recommending treatment with statin drug
1 49 yo man with TC = 240, LDL = 140, HDL = 50. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 114/74. 3% 6.8% / 5% 67.1% 11.4% 34.2% NA 31.6%
2 43 yo woman with TC = 278, LDL = 192, HDL = 48. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 136/86. 1% 7.2% / 5% 89.9% 0.0% 34.2% NA 67.1%
3 68 yo man with TC = 240, LDL = 150, HDL = 40. (+) smoker, (+) diabetes, BP = 110 / 70 22% 26.0% / 25% 32.9% 25.3% 84.8% 15.2% 97.5%
4 42 yo man with total cholesterol = 260, LDL = 192, HDL = 30. (+) smoker (+)diabetes, BP = 110 / 70 10% 18.2% / 15% 46.8% 12.7% 81.0% NA 97.5%
5 42 yo woman with TC = 290, LDL = 200, HDL = 45. (+) smoker; (+) diabetes, BP = 114/ 74 3% 15.1% / 15% 92.4% 0.0% 73.4% NA 96.2%
6 73 yo man with TC = 255, LDL = 165, HDL = 42. Non-smoker; no diabetes; BP = 150/88 18% 23.3% / 20% 27.8% 29.1% 83.5% 16.5% 89.9%
7 74 yo woman with TC = 270, LDL = 170, HDL = 40. Non-smoker; no diabetes; BP = 148/92 7% 19.6% / 15% 65.8% 5.1% 77.2% NA 84.8%
8 40 yo man with TC = 235, LDL = 165, HDL = 40. (+) smoker; no diabetes; BP = 145/91 6% 14.6% / 10.5% 65.4% 7.7% 64.6% NA 92.4%
9 68 yo woman with TC = 244, LDL = 155, HDL = 37. (+) smoker (+)diabetes, BP = 114 / 74 9% 22.6% / 20% 68.4% 8.9% 81.0% 19.0% 97.5%
10 52 yo man with TC = 320, LDL = 210, HDL = 45. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 122/74 5% 17.9% / 15% 79.7% 0.0% 74.7% NA 97.5%
11 54 yo woman with TC = 330, LDL = 235, HDL = 60. Non-smoker, no history of diabetes; BP = 114/74 1% 17.0% / 15% 98.7% 0.0% 68.4% NA 93.7%
12 56 yo woman with TC = 264, LDL = 200, HDL = 34. (+) smoker; no diabetes; BP = 155/90 12% 23.5% / 20% 53.2% 3.8% 91.1% 8.9% 98.7%
  1. Abbreviations: NA = not applicable, TC = serum total cholesterol, LDL = low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL = high density lipoprotein cholesterol, BP = blood pressure. Risk of myocardial infarction, sudden death, or new-onset angina as calculated from the Framingham risk equations