Table 2 Uncertainty parameters used in sensitivity analysis
Data source | Parameter | Mean value | Lower and upper uncertainty values (Ersatzoutput) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
APCSC study [28] | Hazard ratio of fatal CHD in males | 2.03% | -0.11% | 4.41% |
Hazard ratio of fatal CHD in females | 2.54% | -0.85% | 6.42% | |
Hazard ratio of fatal stroke in males | 2.00% | -1.90% | 5.13% | |
Hazard ratio of fatal stroke in females | 2.04% | -0.71% | 5.04% | |
Intervention model (UKPDS risk engine output) | Absolute risk of fatal CHD in males | 6.06% | 3.92% | 8.50% |
Absolute risk of fatal CHD in females | 3.28% | 2.21% | 4.27% | |
Absolute risk of fatal stroke in males | 0.83% | 0.76% | 0.92% | |
Absolute risk of fatal stroke in females | 0.62% | 0.54% | 0.71% | |
Comparator model (UKPDS risk engine output) | Absolute risk of fatal CHD in males | 8.74% | 5.57% | 11.66% |
Absolute risk of fatal CHD in females | 4.78% | 3.02% | 6.41% | |
Absolute risk of fatal stroke in males | 1.13% | 0.94% | 1.29% | |
Absolute risk of fatal stroke in females | 0.82% | 0.73% | 0.94% | |
Intervention model (costing) | Per capita cost | ZAR 5950 | ZAR 5401 | ZAR 6533 |
Comparator model (costing) | Per capita cost | ZAR 4946 | ZAR 4467 | ZAR 5392 |