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Table 10 Transition probabilities

From: The cost-utility of open prostatectomy compared with active surveillance in early localised prostate cancer

State

Event

Expected value

SE

Source*

AS

Progression of Gleason Score

0.0263

0.007

 
 

Other Progression (DRE/PSA)

0.0268

0.007

 
 

Choosing treatment

0.018

0.005

 
 

Developing metastatic prostate cancer under active surveillance

0.0023

0.000425

Bill-Axelson [7]; own calculation

 

Infection due to biopsy

0.02

0.0075

Cambell-Walsh Urology

 

Develop benign prostate hyperplasia

Age dependent

 

Andersson 2004 [48]

 

Transurethral resection of the prostate due to benign prostate hyperplasia

0.000462

-

Andersson 2004; own calculation

Treatment

Perioperative death

0.0044

0.00001

 
 

Major complication during surgery

0.0472

0.0168

 
 

Urethral stricture

0.0344

0.002

 

Post PE

Incontinence and erectile dysfunction short term

0.37

0.0467

 
 

Erectile dysfunction short term

0.39

0.0384

 
 

Incontinence short term

0.09

0.0113

 
 

Keep incontinence and erectile dysfunction long term

0.27

0.0338

 
 

Keep incontinence long term

0.28

0.035

 
 

Keep erectile dysfunction long term

0.89

0.0831

 
 

Disease recurrence

0.00875

0.0032

 
 

Progression from recurrence to metastatic disease

0.0127

0.0047

Horwitz 2005 [49]

 

Death due to prostate cancer after development of metastatic state during hormonal therapy

0.022

0.0225

Alibhai [44]

Post RT

Incontinence short term

0.3

0.0835

 
 

Bowel problems short term

0.18

0.0506

 
 

Bowel problems and incontinence short term

0.054

0.0068

 
 

Keep incontinence long term

0.16

0.02

 
 

Keep bowel problems long term

0.152

0.019

 
 

Erectile dysfunction long term

0.064

0.016

 
 

Keep incontinence and bowel problems long term

0.148

0.0148

 

IC

Sphincter/sling surgery

0.05

0.0075

 

ED

Prosthesis surgery

0.02

0.0003

 

Death

Death due to other reasons

Age dependent

-

 
  1. *If not stated otherwise: [45].
  2. AS = Active Surveillance, ED = Erectile Dysfunction.
  3. DRE = Digital Rectal Examination, IC = Incontinence.
  4. PSA = Prostate Specific Antigen.
  5. PE = Prostatectomy.
  6. RT = Radiotherapy.