Effect of the trend indicators on the hazard of death in hospital. The graphs above show the multiplicative effect of different values of each trend indicator on the hazard of death (compared to the hazard for a patient with the minimum absolute value of the trend indicator). To create the graphs, we held the value of all covariates constant (except the trend indicator of interest) and calculated the risk score when the value of the trend indicator of interest was allowed to vary from a minimum absolute value up to the 95th percentile of observed values for an increasing trend (black solid line) or down to the 5th percentile of observed values for a decreasing trend (grey dotted line). We calculated the hazard ratios by exponentiating (i.e. e
x) the difference between each risk score and the risk score for the minimum absolute value of the trend indicator.