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Table 2 Performance measures

From: Predicting missed health care visits during the COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning methods: evidence from 55,500 individuals from 28 European countries

 

Wave 1

Wave 2

 

Stepwise

Lasso

Random Forest

Neural Networks

Stepwise

Lasso

Random Forest

Neural Networks

 

Male

AUC

(SD)

0.6084

(0.0148)

0.6130

(0.0136)

0.6150

(0.0134)

0.6120

(0.0113)

0.5857

0.5858

0.5923

0.5837

Accuracy

0.6104

0.6108

0.5531

0.5740

0.6137

0.6171

0.5425

0.5697

True positive rate

0.5364

0.5403

0.6171

0.5896

0.4943

0.4918

0.5844

0.5406

True negative rate

0.6220

0.6219

0.5432

0.5717

0.6240

0.6279

0.5389

0.5723

 

Female

AUC

(SD)

0.6128

(0.0086)

0.6142

(0.0099)

0.6110

(0.0092)

0.6124

(0.0055)

0.6066

0.6061

0.6335

0.6031

Accuracy

0.6163

0.6177

0.5760

0.5778

0.6224

0.6202

0.6093

0.5761

True positive rate

0.5255

0.5242

0.5836

0.5767

0.5138

0.5134

0.5760

0.5685

True negative rate

0.6350

0.6369

0.5747

0.5785

0.6345

0.6321

0.6130

0.5770

  1. Accuracy, true positive rate and true negative rate are assessed at a cutoff of 0.135 for men and 0.17 for women. Models were trained on data from wave 1 and then applied on data from wave 2. For wave 1, all measures are means across the five cross-validation folds for each method. For wave 2, the measures for stepwise and lasso are retrieved by applying the model from wave 1 on the data from wave 2. The measures for random forest and neural networks are retrieved by applying the models from all five cross-validation folds from wave 1 on the data from wave 2, and taking the mean predicted probability across all folds. (SD) is the standard deviation of the AUC across the five cross-validation folds for wave 1, and hence cannot be computed for wave 2.