Table 2 Model results: primary outcomes for standard care, PinPoint testing scenarios and service reconfiguration scenarios
Strategy | Number completing the model (95% CI) | Average time to clinic [week days] (95% CI) | Percentage achieving TWW Target (95% CI) | Number of Overspill (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | BC | No BC | BC | No BC | BC | No BC | Total | ||
Standard care | 10,528 (10,511 to 10,545) | 503 (499 to 507) | 10,025 (10,008 to 10,042) | 9.81 (9.81 to 9.82) | 9.81 (9.81 to 9.81) | 66.4% (66.0 to 66.9) | 66.3% (66.0 to 66.5) | 66.3% (66.0 to 66.5) | 1,685 (1,648 to 1,722) |
Pinpoint scenarios | |||||||||
Scenario 1 [0% GP override; 0% true negatives receive delayed referral] | 10,549 (10,532 to 10,567) | 505 (502 to 509) | 10,044 (10,027 to 10,061) | 6.23 (6.20 to 6.25) | 5.64 (5.63 to 5.64) | 98.0% (97.9 to 98.1) | 100% (100 to 100) | 99.9% (99.9 to 99.9) | 727 (707 to 746) |
Scenario 2 [20% GP override; 10% true negatives receive delayed referral] | 10,550 (10,532 to 10,567) | 505 (502 to 509) | 10,044 (10,027 to 10,061) | 6.28 (6.25 to 6.31) | 6.36 (6.35 to 6.38) | 98.4% (98.3 to 98.5) | 98.1% (98.1 to 98.1) | 98.1% (98.1 to 98.2) | 886 (861 to 911) |
Service reconfiguration scenarios (applied with Pinpoint Scenario 2 parameters) | |||||||||
No Tues AM clinic [capacity = 10 new patients + 6 overspills] | 10,497 (10,484 to 10,510) | 502 (499 to 506) | 9,995 (9,982 to 10,008) | 7.75 (7.61 to 7.89) | 7.83 (7.69 to 7.97) | 95.0% (93.8 to 96.2) | 94.8% (93.7 to 96.0) | 94.8% (93.7 to 96.0) | 1,292 (1260 to 1324) |
No Weds AM clinic [capacity = 25 to 34 new patients + 5 overspills] | 10,470 (10,453 to 10,487) | 498 (495 to 502) | 9,972 (9,954 to 9,989) | 11.72 (11.69 to 11.75) | 11.81 (11.79 to 11.82) | 2.9% (2.3 to 3.4) | 2.9% (2.3 to 3.4) | 2.9% (2.3 to 3.4) | 1,632 (1,596 to 1,668) |
No Tues AM or Weds AM clinic | 10,274 (10,275 to 10,291) | 461 (459 to 464) | 9,813 (9,796 to 9,830) | 12.49 (12.46 to 12.52) | 12.58 (12.57 to 12.58) | 0.0% (0.0 to 0.0) | 0.0% (0.0 to 0.0) | 0.0% (0.0 to 0.0) | 2,057 (2,042 to 2,071) |