Table 1 Assumptions of the analysis
A summary of the assumptions underlying the model is provided below |
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1. All infected persons are equality infectious irrespective of age, gender, demographic variables, etc |
2. Infectability of asymptomatic cases are 58% of symptomatic cases [18] |
3. The number of infections created by an infectious person is determined by the Rt value on the day of their LFD positive test result |
4. The daily count of new infections arising from infectious persons is a fixed Log Normal distribution with a median of 5 days and up to 14 days long [19] |
5. An infectious person became infectious 5 days before the LFD positive test result and up to 9 days after (14 days in total). Only infections taking place after the LFD positive test are considered preventable |
6. All infected persons not exhibiting symptoms will not self-isolate, therefore will contribute to subsequent infections |
7. Most persons exhibiting symptoms will self-isolate, but some will still contribute to secondary transmission (each symptomatic case will contribute 0.2 secondary cases in contacts) |
8. The proportion of positive cases that will develop symptoms remains constant (0.44) [20] |
9. All cases reported asymptomatic are truly asymptomatic |
10. All positive LFD tests with confirmatory PCR test are true positives |
11. Of the positive LFD tests without confirmatory PCR test, a fixed proportion will be true positives (0.98) |