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Fig. 2 | BMC Health Services Research

Fig. 2

From: System dynamic modelling of healthcare associated influenza -a tool for infection control

Fig. 2

“Stock-and flow” model. Stocks (accumulations of patients) are illustrated as rectangles, and flows (inputs and outputs) as pipes to/from the stock as the stages change. The model structure follows Fig. 1. The inflow of influenza patients is divided into two sub-flows, (1) patients where influenza is suspected already at the ED and may thereby be subject to immediate interventions such as antiviral treatment and/or single room care and (2) patients who are not suspected of having influenza. Each flow has an “aging chain” over 7 days, (where infectivity is reflected by a curve for viral load day-by-day). Patients admitted for other reasons may be exposed by sharing rooms with infected patients. Individual infectivity is included as a function of the average viral loads of infected patients, vaccination effectivity, coverage and effectiveness of antiviral prophylactic treatment. Patients who become infected at the hospital also flow into an “aging chain” where they subsequently may infect other fellow patients

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