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Table 1 Model parameters

From: Cost-utility analysis of four WHO-recommended sofosbuvir-based regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in sub-Saharan Africa

Model parameters Base-case value Distribution 95% CI Source
Cohort characteristics (at model entry)
Age (years) 55 _ _ TAC trial [12]
Proportion of women 45.8 TAC trial [12]
Fibrosis initial stagesc     
F0 0.076 _   [24]
F1 0.392
F2 0.262
F3 0.186
CC 0.084
Effectiveness of the four studied sofosbuvir-based regimens
SVR12 SOF/RBV    TAC trial [12]
Non Cirrhotic 0.922   [0.820;0.999] b  
Cirrhotic 0.793   [0.705;0.859] b  
SVR12 SOF/LDV    TAC trial [12]
Non Cirrhotic 0.909   [0.832;0.973] b  
Cirrhotic 0.782   [0.716;0.837] b  
SVR12 SOF/DCV    HEPATHER cohort [28]
Non Cirrhotic 0.958   [0.895;1.000] b  
Cirrhotic 0.824   [0.770;0.870] b  
SVR12 SOF/VEL    HEPATHER cohort [28]
Non Cirrhotic 0.977   [0.913;1.000] b  
Cirrhotic 0.840   [0.785;0.887] b  
Natural history of CHC: annual disease transition probabilities between health states in untreated, uncured or re-infected patients
All states → non-CHC related mortalityd _ _ _ [29]
F0 → F1 0.079 Beta(21.1;234.7) [0.052;0.119] [30]
F1 → F2 0.059 Beta(88.4;1399.1) [0.048;0.072] [30]
F2 → F3 0.108 Beta(30.0;238.7) [0.077;0.152] [30]
F3 → CC 0.077 Beta(14.8;164.1) [0.047;0.127] [30]
F3 → DC 0.012 Beta(7.0;558.1) [0.005;0.023] a [31]
F3 → HCC 0.011 Beta(7.0;558.1) [0.005;0.023] a [31]
F3 → CHC-related mortality 0.008 Beta(4.9;527.5) [0.003;0.019] a [31]
CC → DC 0.041 Beta(99.5;2290.4) [0.034;0.050] a [1]
CC → HCC 0.042 Beta(90.0;2048.7) [0.034;0.051] a [1]
CC → CHC-related mortality 0.026 Beta(11.5;407.0) [0.014;0.045] a [31]
DC → HCC 0.068 Beta(37.9;514.7) [0.049;0.091] a [32]
DC → CHC-related mortality 0.130 Beta(75.7;489.9) [0.107;0.163] a [32]
HCC → CHC-related mortality 0.900 Beta(186.3;19.9) [0.86;0.94] a [33]
CHC progression after DAA treatment in cured patients: annual disease transition probabilities between health states
CC → DC 0.023 Beta(14.1;540.5) [0.014;0.040]a [1]
CC → HCC 0.014 Beta(37.9;514.7) [0.007;0.029] [1]
CC → CHC-related mortality 0.026 Beta(11.5;407.0) [0.014;0.045] a [31]
DC → HCC 0.068 Beta(37.9;514.7) [0.049;0.091] a [32]
DC → CHC-related mortality 0.130 Beta(75.7;489.9) [0.107;0.163] a [32]
CHC progression after DAA treatment in cured patients: annual disease transition probabilities between health states
HCC → CHC-related mortality 0.900 Beta(186.3;19.9) [0.86;0.94] [33]
Annual reinfection probabilities     
mono-infected 0.002 Beta(13.2;7051.8) [0.001;0.003] [25]
HIV co-infected 0.032 Beta(0.2;13.1) [0.000;0.123] [25]
Utilities
In untreated and uncured patients
F0-F3 0.74   [0.718;0.767] b TAC trial [12]
CC 0.71   [0.687;0.732] b TAC trial [1234]
DC 0.66   [0.640;0.684] b TAC trial [1234]
HCC 0.66   [0.640;0.684] b TAC trial, [1235, 36]
During Treatment
F0-F3 0.78   [0.763;0.807] b TAC trial [12]
CC 0.75   [0.729;0.771] b TAC trial [1234]
In cured patients
F0-F3 0.81   [0.784;0.826] b TAC trial [12]
CC 0.77   [0.748;0.789] b TAC trial [1234]
DC 0.72   [0.698;0.736] b TAC trial [1234]
HCC 0.66   [0.640;0.684] b TAC trial [1235, 36]
Health states costs
 Health states costs with treatment at fibrosis stage TAC trial [12] and micro-costing study
  SOF/RBV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1660.1 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1617.6;1703.1]  
    Cote d’Ivoire 1439.7 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1402.9;1477.0]  
    Senegal 1570.7 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1530.5;1611.4]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 1029.8 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1003.4;1056.5]  
    Cote d’Ivoire 809.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [788.7;830.4]  
    Senegal 940.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [916.3;964.8]  
  SOF/LDV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1692.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1649.3;1736.5]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1534.2 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1494.9;1574.0]  
    Senegal 1626.0 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1584.4;1668.1]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 920.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [896.8;944.3]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 762.0 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [742.5;781.8]  
    Senegal 853.8 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [831.9;875.9]  
  SOF/DCV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1577.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1537.0;1618.3]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1446.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1409.5;1484.0]  
    Senegal 1524.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1485.6;1564.1]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 521.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [508.1;534.9]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 390.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [380.5;400.6]  
    Senegal 468.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [456.6;480.7]  
  SOF/VEL
   Originator
    Cameroon 1226.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1195.0;1258.2]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1095.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1067.5;1123.9]  
    Senegal 1173.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1143.6;1204.0]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 776.4 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [756.5;796.5]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 645.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [629.0;662.2]  
    Senegal 723.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [705.1;742.4]  
 Health states costs with treatment at CC stage TAC trial [12] and micro-costing study
  SOF/RBV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1841.3 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1794.2;1889.0]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1628.8 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1587.1;1671.0]  
    Senegal 1790.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1744.8;1837.0]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 1211.0 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1180.0;1242.4]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 998.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [972.9;1024.4]  
    Senegal 1160.3 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1130.6;1190.4]  
  SOF/LDV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1873.8 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1825.8;1922.4]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1723.3 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1679.2;1768.0]  
    Senegal 1845.9 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1798.7;1893.7]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 1101.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1073.4;1130.2]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 951.1 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [926.8;975.8]  
    Senegal 1073.7 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1046.2;1101.5]  
  SOF/DCV
   Originator
    Cameroon 1758.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1713.6;1804.2]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1635.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1593.7;1678.0]  
    Senegal 1744.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.3) [1699.9;1789.7]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 702.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [684.6;720.8]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 579.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [564.8;594.6]  
    Senegal 688.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [670.9;706.3]  
  SOF/VEL
   Originator
    Cameroon 1407.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1371.6;1444.1]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 1284.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1251.7;1317.9]  
    Senegal 1393.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [1357.8;1429.6]  
   Generic
    Cameroon 957.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [933.1;982.4]  
    Côte d’Ivoire 834.6 Gamma(5790.7;0.1) [813.2;856.2]  
    Senegal 943.5 Gamma(5790.7;0.2) [919.4;968.0]  
 Health states costs without treatment TAC trial [12] and micro-costing study
  F0-F3
   Cameroon 0 [0.0; 0.0]  
   Côte d’Ivoire 0 [0.0; 0.0]  
   Senegal 0 [0.0; 0.0]  
  CC
   Cameroon 128.7 Gamma(658.5;0.2) [119.1;138.7]  
   Côte d’Ivoire 130.9 Gamma(658.5;0.2) [121.1;141.1]  
   Senegal 181.5 Gamma(658.5;0.3) [167.9;195.6]  
  DC
   Cameroon 143.2 Gamma(1380.2;0.1) [135.7;150.9]  
   Côte d’Ivoire 144.4 Gamma(1380.2;0.1) [136.9;152.1]  
   Senegal 194.0 Gamma(1380.2;0.1) [183.9;204.4]  
  HCC
   Cameroon 182.6 Gamma(399.6;0.5) [165.1;200.9]  
   Côte d’Ivoire 188.4 Gamma(399.6;0.5) [170.4;207.3]  
   Senegal 199.3 Gamma(399.6;0.5) [180.2;219.3]  
  1. Abbreviations: CC Compensated Cirrhosis, CHC Chronic Hepatitis C infection, CI Confidence Interval, DC Decompensated Cirrhosis, F0, F1, F2, F3 METAVIR fibrosis stages, SOF/DCV Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir, SOF/LDV Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir, SOF/RBV Sofosbuvir/Ribavirin, SOF/VEL Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir, SVR12 Sustained Virologic Response measured at week 12 after treatment end
  2. a95% CI calculated using the Wilson score formula.
  3. b95% CI calculated using the bootstrap technique.
  4. cThe DSA considered alternative distributions: i) cohorts without CC; ii) cohorts with CC.
  5. dCountry, sex and age-specific