Table 1 Input values and distributions used in the base case and sensitivity analysis

 IFR in Germany (without vaccine)

0.014 (0.011–0.017)

[17, 18]

 IFR by age (without vaccine)

Age-specific

[17,18,19]

 Percent fully vaccinated

[6]

  Age 18–59

0.72

  Age 60+

0.84

 Vaccine effectiveness against death

[20]

  Age 18–59

0.96

  Age 60+

0.90

 Vaccine effectiveness against ICU admission, age 18+

0.93

[20]

 Lost life years due to COVID-19

6.5

[21]

 Preference weight in the absence of COVID-19

0.8

[22]

 Probability of ICU admission

0.026

[19]

 ICU mortality rate

0.26

[19]

 Preference weight after ICU discharge

0.58

[23]

 Probability of hospital admission, age 80+

0.29

[13]

 Life expectancy after ICU discharge, years

2.1

[24, 25]

 Prevalence of long COVID syndrome

0.025 (0.025–0.117)

[26]

 Preference weight of long COVID syndrome

0.53 (0.42–0.64)

[27]

 7-day incidence rate

65 (30–200)

 Proportion of undetected COVID-19 cases

0.50

[16]

 Asymptomatic infection rate

0.191

[28]

 Symptomatic infection rate

0.254

[28]

 Average incubation period, days

5.8

[29]

 Average infectious period, days

14

[30]

 Test sensitivity

0.81 (0.70–0.90)

[2]

 Test specificity

0.98

[2]

 Rapid COVID-19 antigen self-test, €

2 (0.80–2)

 Annual gross household income, €

56,808

[31]