Table 4 Bivariate Analysis of Actual Outcomes (Health Care Use and Costs) among New Medicaid Enrollees Pre-COVID and Actual and Projected Outcomes for New Enrollees During COVID, North Carolina

At least one ED visit

393,324 (19.5 %)

36,794 (10.8 %)

120,824 (12.9 %)

4,006 (7.1 %)

3,315 (5.9 %)

ED visits per 1,000 member-months

(95 % CI)

113.38

(113.19-113.58)

119.59

(118.75-120.43)

67.65

(67.43–67.87)

71.36

(69.89–72.83)

61.55

(60.08–63.05)

At least one nonemergent ED visit

167,672 (8.3 %)

9,361 (2.7 %)

47,329 (5.1 %)

959 (1.7 %)

756 (1.3 %)

Nonemergent ED visits per 1,000 member-months (95 % CI)

24.01

(23.93–24.10)

18.89

(18.55–19.22)

13.53

(13.44–13.63)

10.64

(10.01–11.27)

9.40

(8.84-10.00)

At least one potentially-avoidable hospitalization

36,961 (1.8 %)

2,143 (0.6 %)

10,873 (1.2 %)

226 (0.4 %)

161 (0.3 %)

Potentially-avoidable hospitalizations per 1,000 member-months

(95 % CI)

4.53

(4.49–4.57)

4.08

(3.93–4.24)

2.76

(2.72–2.81)

2.49

(2.22–2.76)

1.90

(1.66–2.18)

At least one primary care visit

890,962 (44.1 %)

60,954 (17.9 %)

333,940 (35.6 %)

8,126 (14.4 %)

6,508 (11.5 %)

Primary care visits per 1,000 member-months (95 % CI)

322.90

(322.57-323.23)

188.23

(187.18–189.30)

196.39

(196.03-196.76)

114.48

(112.50-116.46)

110.81

(108.84-112.81)

At least one dental visit

296,051 (14.7 %)

6,720 (2.0 %)

86,951 (9.3 %)

734 (1.3 %)

741 (1.3 %)

Dental visits per 1,000 member-months

(95 % CI)

50.42

(50.29–50.55)

17.90

(17.58–18.23)

26.61

(26.47–26.75)

9.45

(8.81–10.09)

10.95

(10.34–11.59)

Subjects with some costs

1,159,347 (57.4 %)

125,061 (36.7 %)

480,835 (51.3 %)

18,508 (32.8 %)

14,239 (25.2 %)

Total cost in dollars per member-months

(95 % CI)

380.40

(380.04-380.75)

500.98

(499.26-502.71)

336.64

(336.16-337.12)

443.35

(440.05-446.65)

302.62

(299.36-305.93)

N

2,020,253

340,782

936,870

56,428

56,428