Table 1 Main model parameters

 Kenyan deaths due to COVID19

8914 (101–36,864)

lognormal

[28]

 Kenyan COVID19 cases (thousands)

645.97 (7.35–2671.33)

lognormal

[28]

 HCW infections as % of total infections

(full PPE case)

0.034 (0.029–0.039)

beta

Estimate, [12]

 HCW infections as % of total infection

(limited PPE case)

0.05 (0.04–0.06)

beta

[29]

 Case acuity mix %

(mild/moderate/critical)

80.0/13.8/6.20

beta

[30]

 Case fatality (%)

1.38 (1.23–1.53)

beta

[31]

Utilization Inputs

Value (range for sensitivity analysis)

 Mean hospital days for severe infection

11 (6–21)

lognormal

[32]

 Days of work missed for infection (mild/moderate/severe)

13/28/40

lognormal

[32]

 Cost of training a Medical Officer

31,541 (26,810-36,272)

gamma

, ^b

 Cost of training a clinical officer

6660 (5661-7659)

gamma

[33, 34], ^b

 Cost of training a nurse

6660 (5661-7659)

gamma

[33, 34], ^b

 Cost of training a laboratory technologist

4858 (4130-5587)

gamma

[33, 34], ^b

 Cost per Doctor-day of work

102 (87–118)

gamma

^a

 Cost per clinical officer-day of work

51 (43–58)

gamma

^a

 Cost per nurse-day of work

44 (38–51)

gamma

^a

 Cost per lab tech-day of work

34 (29–39)

gamma

^a

 Cost of supplies (millions)

3.12 (2.65–3.59)

gamma

[35]

 Hospital bed per day

30.26 (8.17–52.35)

gamma

[24, 35]

 GDP per capita

1817 (1544-2088)

gamma

 Number of HCW

161,160

lognormal

[12]