Table 3 Results of regression analysis. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) are displayed with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p values

Estimated prevalence of CMD (%)

1.05 (1.04–1.06)

1.05 (1.03–1.07)

–

1.02 (1.01–1.04)

1.01 (1.10–1.04)

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P = 0.008

P = 0.219*

Prevalence of SMI (%)

2.08 (1.75–2.48)

1.91 (1.59–2.29)

1.71 (1.35–2.14)

–

1.75 (1.39–2.20)

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001**

Proportion of population who are BAME (people per 1000 population)

1.04 (1.01–1.07)

0.98 (0.94–1.02)

0.97 (0.94–1.01)

1.00 (0.97–1.03)

0.95 (0.92–0.99)

P = 0.011

P = 0.308

P = 0.114

P = 0.916

P = 0.007

Population density (number of people per 10 ha)

1.03 (1.01–1.05)

1.01 (0.99–1.03)

0.99 (0.97–1.01)

1.03 (1.01–1.05)

0.98 (0.96–1.00)

P = 0.004

P = 0.538

P = 0.405

P = 0.003

P = 0.07

IMD

1.02 (1.01–1.02)

1.02 (1.01–1.02)

1.02 (1.01–1.03)

1.01 (1.01–1.02)

1.02 (1.01–1.04)

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

Percentage unemployed (%)

1.17 (1.12–1.22)

1.15 (1.10–1.19)

1.11 (1.05–1.17)

1.10 (1.06–1.15)

1.11 (1.05–1.17)

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

P < 0.001

Access to IAPT

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

1.00 (0.99–1.01)

1.00 (1.00–1.01)

P = 0.788

P = 0.995

P = 0.985

P = 0.650

P = 0.664

Recovery in IAPT

1.00 (1.00–1.01)

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

1.00 (1.00–1.01)

1.01 (1.00–1.01)

P = 0.725

P = 0.130

P = 0.124

P = 0.342

P = 0.103