Skip to main content

Table 2 Performance of NEWS (M0, M1, M2) and NEWS2 (M0’,M1’,M2’) models for predicting the risk of COVID on admission for validation dataset

From: Predictive accuracy of enhanced versions of the on-admission National Early Warning Score in estimating the risk of COVID-19 for unplanned admission to hospital: a retrospective development and validation study

Model

Correcting Calibration-in-the-large

Mean Risk Non-COVID

Mean Risk COVID

Scaled Brier Score (%)

c-statistic (95 % CIs)

Calibration-in-the-large (95 % CIs)

Calibration Slope (95 % CIs)

M0

No

0.09

0.11

-14.7

0.65 (0.62 to 0.69)

0.19 (0.06 to 0.32)

0.72 (0.53 to 0.91)

M1

No

0.09

0.12

-12.4

0.67 (0.64 to 0.7)

0.18 (0.05 to 0.31)

0.81 (0.63 to 0.99)

M2

No

0.09

0.16

-8.2

0.72 (0.69 to 0.75)

0.19 (0.06 to 0.32)

0.78 (0.65 to 0.91)

M0

Yes

0.11

0.14

0.5

0.65 (0.62 to 0.69)

-

0.72 (0.53 to 0.91)

M1

Yes

0.11

0.14

1.9

0.67 (0.64 to 0.7)

-

0.81 (0.63 to 0.99)

M2

Yes

0.10

0.18

5.2

0.72 (0.69 to 0.75)

-

0.78 (0.65 to 0.91)

M0`

No

0.09

0.12

-14.2

0.65 (0.61 to 0.68)

0.18 (0.06 to 0.31)

0.69 (0.51 to 0.87)

M1`

No

0.09

0.12

-12.2

0.67 (0.64 to 0.7)

0.17 (0.05 to 0.30)

0.78 (0.60 to 0.96)

M2`

No

0.09

0.17

-6.9

0.72 (0.69 to 0.75)

0.18 (0.05 to 0.31)

0.76 (0.64 to 0.89)

M0`

Yes

0.11

0.14

0.2

0.65 (0.61 to 0.68)

-

0.69 (0.51 to 0.87)

M1`

Yes

0.11

0.14

1.3

0.67 (0.64 to 0.7)

-

0.78 (0.60 to 0.96)

M2`

Yes

0.10

0.19

5.5

0.72 (0.69 to 0.75)

-

0.76 (0.64 to 0.89)

  1. ARD absolute risk difference, CIs confidence intervals