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Table 2 Hypothetical scenarios under ‘new rules SRTI’

From: Changing the eligibility criteria for welfare payments at the end of life – a budget impact analysis for England and Wales

Scenario Long-run claim increase Growth rate Age threshold for claim increase Fraction of increased claims from non-SRTI
Main scenarios
 Low increase 1 pp 1 x current rate 40 10%
 Medium increase 2 pp 1 x current rate 40 10%
 High increase 3 pp 1 x current rate 40 10%
Robustness – varying growth rate
 Low increase, fast growth 1 pp 5 x current rate 40 10%
 Low increase, very fast growth 1 pp 10 x current rate 40 10%
 Medium increase, fast growth 2 pp 5 x current rate 40 10%
 Medium increase, very fast growth 2 pp 10 x current rate 40 10%
 High increase, fast growth 3 pp 5 x current rate 40 10%
 High increase, very fast growth 3 pp 10 x current rate 40 10%
Robustness – varying claims from non-SRTI
 Low increase, low claims from non-SRTI 1 pp 1 x current rate 40 0%
 Low increase, medium claims from non-SRTI 1 pp 1 x current rate 40 5%
 Low increase, high claims from non-SRTI 1 pp 1 x current rate 40 20%
 Medium increase, low claims from non-SRTI 2 pp 1 x current rate 40 0%
 Medium increase, medium claims from non-SRTI 2 pp 1 x current rate 40 5%
 Medium increase, high claims from non-SRTI 2 pp 1 x current rate 40 20%
 High increase, low claims from non-SRTI 3 pp 1 x current rate 40 0%
 High increase, medium claims from non-SRTI 3 pp 1 x current rate 40 5%
 High increase, high claims from non-SRTI 3 pp 1 x current rate 40 20%
Robustness – varying age threshold for claim increase
 Low increase, age 20 threshold 1 pp 1 x current rate 20 10%
 Low increase, age 30 threshold 1 pp 1 x current rate 30 10%
 Low increase, age 50 threshold 1 pp 1 x current rate 50 10%
 Medium increase, age 20 threshold 2 pp 1 x current rate 20 10%
 Medium increase, age 30 threshold 2 pp 1 x current rate 30 10%
 Medium increase, age 50 threshold 2 pp 1 x current rate 50 10%
 High increase, age 20 threshold 3 pp 1 x current rate 20 10%
 High increase, age 30 threshold 3 pp 1 x current rate 30 10%
 High increase, age 50 threshold 3 pp 1 x current rate 50 10%
  1. Each scenario has the following assumptions in common:- (1) Increased SRTI claims were only seen in the disease categories infectious and parasitic diseases; neoplasms; mental and behavioural disorders; diseases of the nervous system; diseases of the circulatory system; diseases of the respiratory system; diseases of the digestive system; and diseases of the genitourinary system. (2) Long-run claim increases for 65–69 year olds and over 70s were 75 and 10% respectively of the increases for individuals aged under 65
  2. SRTI special rules for the terminally ill, pp percentage point(s)