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Table 4 The results of the scenario analyses comparing timing of price negotiations - Spinraza

From: The impact of early phase price agreements on prices of orphan drugs

Actual price   € 240.000      
absolute    change   
Costs   9% 7% 5% 9% 7% 5%
 Phase III 5% € 187,721 € 158,536 € 133,044 −21.8% −33.9% −44.6%
10% € 187,047 € 157,949 € 132,535 −22.1% −34.2% −44.8%
 Phase IV 5% € 188,285 € 159,019 € 133,454 −21.5% −33.7% −44.4%
10% € 188,176 € 158,914 € 133,355 −21.6% −33.8% −44.4%
Total 5% € 187,611 € 158,431 € 132,945 −21.8% −34.0% −44.6%
10% € 186,829 € 157,740 € 132,337 −22.2% −34.3% −44.9%
Probabilities
 Phase III to IV 5% € 179,527 € 151,645 € 127,288 −25.2% −36.8% −47.0%
10% € 171,466 € 144,847 € 121,593 −28.6% −39.6% −49.3%
 Reimbursement 5% € 170,879 € 144,329 € 121,137 −28.8% −39.9% −49.5%
10% € 155,698 € 131,507 € 110,375 −35.1% −45.2% −54.0%
 Eligibility 5% € 179,423 € 151,546 € 127,194 −25.2% −36.9% −47.0%
10% € 171,267 € 144,657 € 121,412 −28.6% −39.7% −49.4%
 All 5% € 155,082 € 130,997 € 109,956 −35.4% −45.4% −54.2%
10% € 128,825 € 108,826 € 91,354 −46.3% −54.7% −61.9%
Cost marketing
  5% € 182,317 € 153,990 € 129,245 −24.0% −35.8% − 46.1%
  10% € 176,619 € 149,178 € 125,206 −26.4% −37.8% −47.8%
Time saving (months) 6 € 176,990 € 150,194 € 126,641 −26.3% − 37.4% −47.2%
12 € 166,888 € 142,214 € 120,409 − 30.5% −40.7% −49.8%
Uptake (base 80%) 90% € 158,648 € 133,998 € 112,466 −28,8%- 33.9% −39.9%- 44.2% −49.5%- 53.1%
95% € 167,461 € 141,443 € 118,714 −35,1%- 30.2% −45.2%- 41.1% −54.0%- 50.5%
Combined
 Minimum   € 124,805 € 105,897 € 89,279 −48.0% −55.9% −62.8%
 Maximum   € 89,336 € 76,109 € 64,422 −62.8% −68.3% −73.2%