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Table 2 The results of the sensitivity and scenario analyses (late price negotiations)

From: The impact of early phase price agreements on prices of orphan drugs

Parameter Scenario Price    
   Spinraza   Orkambi  
Actual price (BE price)   €240,000   €169,386  
Scenario   BE price change BE price change
 Global market large market €175,768 -€ 64,232 €117,030 -€52,356
 Incidence (per 100,000) min. - 20% €318,000 € 78,000 €211,733 €42,347
min. − + 20% €212,000 -€ 28,000 €141,155 -€28,231
 Off-label use min. 2.5% (assumption) €248,195 € 8195 €167,837 -€1549
max. 5.9% (assumption) €242,286 € 2286 €170,963 €1577
 Growth population min. 0% (assumption) €290,743 € 50,743 €176,719 €7333
max. 2.5% (assumption) €226,133 -€ 13,867 €163,301 -€6085
 Cost of capital Pharma −9% €185,261 -€ 54,739 €123,352 -€46,034
Assumption 18% €463,042 € 223,042 €308,305 €138,919
 Probability success phase I-II min. - 20% €301,970 € 61,970 €201,060 €31,674
min. − + 20% €222,686 -€ 17,314 €148,270 -€21,116
 Probability success phase II -III3 min. - 20% €313,044 € 73,044 €208,433 €39,047
min. − + 20% €215,304 -€ 24,696 €143,355 -€26,031
 Probability success phase III - registration min. - 20% €317,383 € 77,383 €211,322 €41,936
min. − + 20% €212,411 -€ 27,589 €141,429 -€27,957
 Probability reimbursement min. (assumption) - 80% €321,975 € 81,975 €214,379 €44,993
max. (assumption) -100% €206,064 -€ 33,936 €190,559 €21,173
 Eligible min. (assumption) - 80% €286,200 € 46,200 €190,559 €21,173
max. (assumption) -100% €228,960 -€ 11,040 €152,447 -€16,939
 Cost marketing min. - 20% €218,057 -€ 21,943 €145,188 -€24,198
min. − + 20% €305,280 € 65,280 €203,263 €33,877
 Costs R&D - preclinical min. - 20% €225,700 -€ 14,300 €150,277 -€19,109
min. − + 20% €283,100 € 43,100 €188,495 €19,109
 Costs R&D - phase I min. - 20% €245,044 € 5044 €163,157 -€6229
min. − + 20% €263,756 € 23,756 €175,615 €6229
 Costs R&D - phase II min. - 20% €245,541 € 5541 €163,487 -€5899
min. − + 20% €263,259 € 23,259 €175,285 €5899
 Costs R&D - phase III min. - 20% €250,929 € 10,929 €167,075 -€2311
min. − + 20% €257,871 € 17,871 €171,697 €2311
 Costs R&D - phase IV min. - 20% €253,906 € 13,906 €169,057 -€329
min. − + 20% €254,894 € 14,894 €169,715 €329
 Uptake min. (assumption) - 90% €290,743 € 50,743 €193,584 €24,198
max. (assumption) - 95% €226,133 -€ 13,867 €150,565 -€18,821
 Proportion in clinical trials min. (assumption) - 5% €267,789 € 27,789 €178,301 €8915
max. (assumption) - 10% €279,560 € 39,560 €188,207 €18,821