Table 1 Estimations used to model the burden of HCV in Turkey
From: A micro-elimination approach to addressing hepatitis C in Turkey
a. Base 2017 scenario | ||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 & 2018 | 2018 | 2019 | ≥2020 | |
Treated | 4200 | 5600 | 10,200 | 9500 | 8800 | 5600 |
Newly diagnosed | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 |
Fibrosis stage | ≥F0 | ≥F3 | ≥F1 | ≥F1 | ≥F1 | ≥F1 |
Treated age | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 |
SVR | 49% | 97% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
b. Increased treatment scenario | ||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 & 2018 | 2019 | 2020–2024 | ≥2025 | |
Treated | 4200 | 5600 | 10,200 | 11,000 | 11,000 | 11,000 |
Newly diagnosed | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 |
Fibrosis stage | ≥F0 | ≥F3 | ≥F1 | ≥F0 | ≥F0 | ≥F0 |
Treated age | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 |
SVR | 49% | 97% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
c. WHO targets scenario | ||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 & 2018 | 2019 | 2021–2024 | ≥2025 | |
Treated | 4200 | 5600 | 10,200 | 15,000 | 16,000 | 16,000 |
Newly diagnosed | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 6000 | 18,000 | 18,000 |
Fibrosis stage | ≥F0 | ≥F3 | ≥F1 | ≥F1 | ≥F0 | ≥F0 |
Treated age | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 | 15–79 |
SVR | 49% | 97% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |