Skip to main content

Table 3 Diagnostic properties of clinical prediction rule applied to validation cohort

From: Risk factors, costs and complications of delayed hospital discharge from internal medicine wards at a Canadian academic medical centre: retrospective cohort study

ScoreALC patients / Patients with same number of points
Positive predictive value
ALC patients
(N = 124)
Non-ALC patients
(N = 2032)
Likelihood ratio
(95% CI)
Point system
 0 point2 / 459 (0.4%)2 (1.6%)457 (22.5%)0.07 (0.02–0.28)
 1 point11 / 742 (1.5%)11 (8.9%)731 (36.0%)0.25 (0.14–0.44)
 2 points17 / 440 (3.9%)17 (13.7%)423 (20.8%)0.66 (0.42–1.03)
 3 points26 / 314 (8.3%)26 (21.0%)288 (14.2%)1.48 (1.03–2.12)
 4 points40 / 148 (27.0%)40 (32.3%)108 (5.3%)6.07 (4.43–8.31)
 5 points23 / 45 (51.1%)23 (18.6%)22 (1.1%)17.13 (9.83–29.86)
 6 points4 / 7 (57.1%)4 (3.2%)3 (0.2%)21.85 (4.94–96.56)
 7 points1 / 1 (100%)1 (0.8%)0 (0%)N/A
Risk category
 Low risk (0–1 points)13 / 1201 (1.1%)13 (10.5%)1188 (58.5%)0.18 (0.11–0.30)
 Medium risk (2–3 points)43 / 754 (5.7%)43 (34.7%)711 (35.0%)0.99 (0.77–1.27)
 High risk (> = 4 points)68 / 201 (33.8%)68 (54.8%)133 (6.6%)8.38 (6.66–10.54)
  1. In the clinical prediction rule, score for each patient is calculated where each of the predictors in the multivariate model in Table 3 is worth 1 point (Age > =80 years = 1 point; female = 1 point; dementia = 1 point; diabetes with complications = 1 point; physiotherapy = 1 point; occupational therapy = 1 point; speech language pathologist = 1 point). N/A = not applicable as too few patients to accurately calculate likelihood ratios