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Table 1 Data source and those difinition for construction of forecasting model

From: Forecasting maldistribution of human resources for healthcare and patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach

Variables

Definition

Sources

Publication year

Responsible organization

Supply side

 The number of physicians/specialist in the future

Futre population each SMCA × physicians/Specialist number per population in 2015

Population projection for Japan [2], The Survey of Physicians, Dentists, and Pharmacists [3]

2014,2015

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

 Future Population SMCA

Future Population data at 2025,2035

Population projection for Japan [2]

2015

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

 The number of physicians

Extraction only clinical physician

The Survey of Physicians, Dentists, and Pharmacists [3]

2014

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

 The number of physician in each SMCA

Extraction only clinical physician

Annual Health Report in Hokkaido [14]

2014

Hokkaido government

 The number of specialist for treatment CS

The number of specialist engaged in neurosurgery

List of certified specialists [15]

2017

the Japan Neurosurgical Society

 The number of specialist for treatment AMI

The number of specialist engaged in cardiovascular

List of certified specialists [16]

2017

the Japan Circulation Society

 Location of each specialist to treat AMI/CS

Public medical institution responsible for acute care

Medical care plan in 2016 [17]

2016

Hokkaido government

 Population in Hokkaido/each SMCA

Population in Hokkaido/each SMCA

National Census [4]

2015

Statistics Bureau

Demand side

 The number of patinet by disease/SMCA

Future Population by age/sex/SMCA × Utilization rate at 2015 by age/sex/SMCA/disease

Population projection for Japan [2], Patient Survey [10]

2014,2015

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

 Future Population by age/sex/SMCA

Future Population data at 2025,2035

Population projection for Japan [2]

2015

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

 Utilization rate by classification of disease

Utilization rate by classification of disease

Patient survey [10]

2014

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare