Skip to main content

Table 3 Scenario analysis parameters

From: Incorporating ex-vivo lung perfusion into the UK adult lung transplant service: an economic evaluation and decision analytic model

Parameters

Mean

Alpha/Beta

Distribution

Source

Scenario 1: Pre-trial model transitions

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’ (Standard and EVLP service)

Year 1

0.08

16, 180

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.03

2, 67

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.11

3, 32

Beta

NHSBT [24]

From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’ (Standard and EVLP service)

Year 1

0.17

33,163

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.09

6, 63

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.17

6, 29

Beta

NHSBT [24]

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’

Year 1

0.4

78, 118

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.38

26, 43

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.28

10, 25

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Scenario 2: 20% increase in lung transplant activity due to EVLP procedure

Increase in LTx activity due to EVLP procedure

(Applied in addition to standard LTx transition in ‘EVLP service’ arm)

0.2

36, 184

Beta

DEVELOP-UK data [4]

Scenario 3: 45% Conversion rate

EVLP lung transplant

£119,672

75.1, 1644.4

Gamma

DEVELOP-UK data [4]

Scenario 4: 1:1 conversion rate

EVLP lung transplant

£89,455

42.4, 2174.3

Gamma

DEVELOP-UK data [4]

Scenario 5: Utilities from literature

 Waiting list

0.31

59.72, 132.93

Beta

Anyanwu et al. [25]

 1-year post standard lung transplant

0.83

1099.12, 257.82

Beta

Anyanwu et al. [25]

 2 years onwards post standard lung transplant

0.82

854.12, 187.49

Beta

Anyanwu et al. [25]

 1-year post EVLP lung transplant

0.83

1099.12, 257.82

Beta

Anyanwu et al. [25]

 2 years onwards post EVLP transplant

0.82

854.12, 187.49

Beta

Anyanwu et al. [25]

Scenario 6: Increase in LTx activity (Excluding EVLP)

Pre-trial

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’

Year 1

0.08

16, 180

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 2

0.03

2, 67

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 3 onwards

0.11

3, 32

Beta

NHSBT [11]

From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’

Year 1

0.17

33,163

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 2

0.09

6, 63

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 3 onwards

0.17

6, 29

Beta

NHSBT [11]

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’

Year 1

0.40

78, 118

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 2

0.38

26, 43

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Year 3 onwards

0.28

10, 25

Beta

NHSBT [11]

Within trial

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Removed from waiting list’

Year 1

0.020

5.02, 245.98

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.030

2.51, 80.32

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.077

2.51, 30.12

Beta

NHSBT [24]

From ‘Waiting list’ to Transition to ‘Death’

Year 1

0.150

37.65, 213.35

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.212

17.57, 65.26

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.077

2.51, 30.12

Beta

NHSBT [24]

From ‘Waiting list’ to ‘Receiving a standard lung transplant’

Year 1

0.510

128, 122.99

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 2

0.364

30.1, 52.71

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Year 3 onwards

0.462

15.1, 17.57

Beta

NHSBT [24]

Scenario 7: DEVELOP-UK one-year survival post-transplant

Standard service

0.80

161.8, 40.4

Beta

DEVELOP-UK [4]

EVLP service

0.67

11.64, 5.73

Beta

DEVELOP-UK [4]

Scenario 8: Same costs of post-transplant inpatient care in both arms (EVLP service = standard service costs plus costs of EVLP procedure)

Standard service transplant

£51,778

304.2, 175.5

Gamma

DEVELOP-UK data [4]

EVLP service transplant

£95,750

344.74, 269.29

Gamma

DEVELOP-UK data [4]

Scenario 9: Increase in waiting list costs by 120%

Increase waiting list cost

£50,830

96.04, 529.26

Gamma

120% increase

  1. *EVLP Ex-vivo lung perfusion, LTx Lung transplantation, NHSBT NHS blood and transplant