Table 1 OLS and Neural Network time trend forecast analysis (2011–2014) of mortality rate (MR) and health spending items (DPS, TAUS, FHE). MR is in deaths/10.000. DPS, TAUS and FHE are in € per capita
Year | Real | OLS | Neural Network | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction | 95% interval | Prediction | 95% interval | ||
MR | |||||
2011 | 83.74 | 82.07 | (80.15, 83.99) | 84.25 | (81.90, 86.60) |
2012 | 84.78 | 80.06 | (77.96, 82.15) | 83.34 | (80.92, 85.76) |
2013 | 80.59 | 78.04 | (75.77, 80.32) | 82.79 | (80.42, 85.17) |
2014 | 78.29 | 76.03 | (73.57, 78.49) | 82.32 | (79.93, 84.70) |
DPS | |||||
2011 | 1137.21 | 1216.77 | (1190.78, 1242.75) | 1153.13 | (1124.99, 1181.27) |
2012 | 1095.43 | 1249.18 | (1220.81, 1277.56) | 1170.69 | (1138.38, 1203.01) |
2013 | 1054.15 | 1281.60 | (1250.78, 1312.41) | 1171.92 | (1138.19, 1205.65) |
2014 | 1052.00 | 1314.01 | (1280.72, 1347.31) | 1180.51 | (1147.86, 1213.16) |
TAUS | |||||
2011 | 703.79 | 834.01 | (780.44, 887.57) | 741.37 | (720.93, 761.81) |
2012 | 671.52 | 856.38 | (797.89, 914.88) | 742.48 | (720.91, 764.05) |
2013 | 654.96 | 878.76 | (815.23, 942.29) | 742.54 | (721.67, 763.41) |
2014 | 658.00 | 901.14 | (832.49, 969.77) | 742.39 | (721.39, 763.39) |
FHE | |||||
2011 | 582.81 | 545.55 | (508.79, 582.31) | 502.61 | (479.75, 525.47) |
2012 | 560.45 | 548.48 | (508.34, 588.62) | 520.69 | (487.36, 554.03) |
2013 | 544.63 | 551.40 | (507.81, 594.99) | 512.96 | (480.39, 545.52) |
2014 | 553.00 | 554.33 | (507.23, 601.43) | 525.05 | (488.70, 561.41) |