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Table 3 Taxonomy of types of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness models

From: Will the reformed Cancer Drugs Fund address the most common types of uncertainty? An analysis of NICE cancer drug appraisals

Type of uncertainty Description Handled by:
Parameter uncertainty Uncertainty in estimates of the values of the parameters used in the cost-effectiveness model, represented by the familiar concepts of standard deviation and standard error Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
Structural uncertainty The assumptions made in constructing and populating cost-effectiveness models, such as the method used to extrapolate survival Sensitivity analysis
Methodological uncertainty The analytical approaches used Specification of a Reference Case of standard methods
Generalisability To what extent the model, assumptions and data represent the population for which the decision is being made Sensitivity analysis