Table 1 The list of external data used for simulation
Explanation of variable | Unit | Data source | Period | Example of variable name in the model | Processing (if any) | Calibration or exogenous actual values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sex- and age category- specific population estimates | Person | Population Estimates | 2000–15 | pop2029 | Not applicable | Calibration |
Sex- and age category-specific diabetes prevalence | Person | Meta-regression analysis by Charvat et al. Population Estimates | 2000–15 | DM2029 | Estimated prevalence (%) in 2000, 2005, and 2010 were used to interpolate and extrapolate the estimates during 2000–2015. The percentages were multiplied with sex- and age category-specific population estimates. | Calibration |
Sex- and age category-specific number of patients on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy | Person | An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan | 2000–15 | DMDi4049 | Sex- and age category-specific number was obtained for 2011–15. For 2000–10, the values were estimated using aggregated estimates and age- specific proportion of diabetic nephropathy among all cause in 2011–15. | Calibration |
Sex-specific population estimates at the age of 20 (used as inflow toward stocks of age 20–29) | Person/year | Population Estimates | 2000–35 | Allto20f | The population estimate at the age of less than 20 in 2015 was used to estimate the future population at the age of 20. | Exogenous actual values |
Sex-specific population estimates at the age of 40 on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy (used as inflow toward stock of age 40–49) | Person/year | An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan | 2000–15 | DMDito40in | Sex-specific numbers in ages 35–39 and 40–44 were averaged and divided by 5. | Exogenous actual values |
Sex- and age category-specific mortality rate | 1/year | Vital Statistics Population Estimates An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan | 2000–15 | NDM2029drt, DM2029drt, DMDi4049drt | The mortality (incidence) was obtained from dividing the number of death by population estimates. The ratio of mortality of non-DM and DM patients were assumed to be 1:2. Actual values for patients on dialysis were used for 2012–2015 and estimated values were used for the rest of the period. | Exogenous actual values |