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Table 1 The list of external data used for simulation

From: Construction of a simulation model and evaluation of the effect of potential interventions on the incidence of diabetes and initiation of dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in Japan

Explanation of variable Unit Data source Period Example of variable name in the model Processing (if any) Calibration or exogenous actual values
Sex- and age category- specific population estimates Person Population Estimates 2000–15 pop2029 Not applicable Calibration
Sex- and age category-specific diabetes prevalence Person Meta-regression analysis by Charvat et al. Population Estimates 2000–15 DM2029 Estimated prevalence (%) in 2000, 2005, and 2010 were used to interpolate and extrapolate the estimates during 2000–2015. The percentages were multiplied with sex- and age category-specific population estimates. Calibration
Sex- and age category-specific number of patients on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy Person An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan 2000–15 DMDi4049 Sex- and age category-specific number was obtained for 2011–15. For 2000–10, the values were estimated using aggregated estimates and age- specific proportion of diabetic nephropathy among all cause in 2011–15. Calibration
Sex-specific population estimates at the age of 20 (used as inflow toward stocks of age 20–29) Person/year Population Estimates 2000–35 Allto20f The population estimate at the age of less than 20 in 2015 was used to estimate the future population at the age of 20. Exogenous actual values
Sex-specific population estimates at the age of 40 on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy (used as inflow toward stock of age 40–49) Person/year An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan 2000–15 DMDito40in Sex-specific numbers in ages 35–39 and 40–44 were averaged and divided by 5. Exogenous actual values
Sex- and age category-specific mortality rate 1/year Vital Statistics Population Estimates An Overview of Regular Dialysis Treatment in Japan 2000–15 NDM2029drt, DM2029drt,
DMDi4049drt
The mortality (incidence) was obtained from dividing the number of death by population estimates. The ratio of mortality of non-DM and DM patients were assumed to be 1:2. Actual values for patients on dialysis were used for 2012–2015 and estimated values were used for the rest of the period. Exogenous actual values