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Table 1 Disease transition probabilities for the high burden countries analyzed

From: Health outcomes of bedaquiline in the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in selected high burden countries

Parameter Probability of event/28 days, % (SE) [Source]
Sputum culture conversion on BR, 0–8 weeks (log-normal)
 Scale parameter 4.99 (0.21) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Shape parameter 0.73 (0.11) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
Sputum culture conversion on BR, 8–24 weeks (log-normal)
 Scale parameter 5.68 (0.40) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Shape parameter 1.90 (0.27) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
Sputum culture conversion on BR, ≥24 weeks (log-normal)
 Scale parameter 8.28 (1.09) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Shape parameter 2.70 (0.82) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
Subsequent MDR-TB
 Hazard ratio of subsequent MDR-TB (vs. initial MDR-TB) 0.54 (0.17) Open-label, phase II clinical trial C209 [13]
Other events
 Probability of reversion 1 (0.30) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Probability of death MDR-TB, no cure 2.21 [34, 35]
MDR-TB, cure 0.32 [34, 35]
XDR-TB, no cure 2.69 [34, 35]
XDR-TB, cure 0.39 [34, 35]
Treatment effect
 Hazard ratio of bedaquiline (sputum culture conversion) 2.44 (0.57) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Hazard ratio of bedaquiline (relapse) 0.32 (0.25) Placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial C208 [12]
 Hazard ratio (XDR-TB) 0.40 (0.11) Open-label, phase II clinical trial C209 [13]
  Estoniaa Russiab South Africaa Perua Chinaa Philippinesa Indiaa
Probability of loss to follow-up, % (SE) 1.4 (4.1) 1.5 (0.3) 1.4 (0.4) 1.5 (0.8) 0.6 (0.7) 3.4 (1.6) 1.2 (0.6)
  1. SOURCE: (a): [14]; (b): [15]
  2. BR background regimen, MDR-TB multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, SE standard error, XDR-TB extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis