The economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination strategies against cervical cancer in women in Lao PDR: a mathematical modelling approach

Chanthavilay, Phetsavanh; Reinharz, Daniel; Mayxay, Mayfong; Phongsavan, Keokedthong; Marsden, Donald E.; Moore, Lynne; White, Lisa J.

doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1662-5

Table 1 Summary of input parameters for the model

From: The economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination strategies against cervical cancer in women in Lao PDR: a mathematical modelling approach

Parameters		Baseline values^a	Range^b	Source
Progression
Healthy to infection^c	HPV-16	0.000175–0.003148	0.0001426–0.00761	Calibrated
	HPV-18	0.0004–0.000789	0.000102–0.00168
	Other HR HPV	0.000206–0.004038	0.0001703–0.00911
	LR HPV	0.000958–0.018412	0.00069–0.0537
HPV DNA to CIN1^d	HR-16 HPV	0.005194–0.00901		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.002793–0.004845
	HR-other HPV	0.007693–0.013345
	LR-HPV	0.002397–0.001222
Proportion (%) of women who transition directly from HPV DNA to CIN2,3	HR-16 HPV	0.64		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.975
	HR-other HPV	0.966
	LR-HPV	0.98
CIN 1 to CIN 2,3^d	HR-16 HPV	0.00951–0.012363		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.0051–0.00663
	HR-other HPV	0.00747–0.009711
	LR-HPV	0.000149–0.000222
CIN 2,3 to local cancer	HR-16 HPV	0.000151–0.00906		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.000264–0.01584
	HR-other HPV	0.000199–0.01194
Local to regional invasive cancer		0.0200		[7]
Regional to distant invasive cancer		0.0250
Regression
HPV DNA to normal	HR-16 HPV	0.09089		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.09089
	HR-other HPV	0.09272
	LR-HPV	0.09699
CIN 1 to normal^e	HR-16 HPV	0.03782		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.03782
	HR-other HPV	0.04575
	LR-HPV	0.01708
CIN 2,3 to normal^f	HR-16 HPV	0.000798–0.000455		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.003556–0.011938
	HR-other HPV	0.002926–0.009823
	LR-HPV	0.001904–0.006392
Other
Immunity (%) (HR-HPV types only)^g	HR-16 HPV	0.66		[7]
	HR-18 HPV	0.86
	HR-other HPV	0.59
Annual probability of symptom detection^h	Local invasive cancer	0.33		[7]
	Regional invasive cancer	0.60
	Distant cancer	0.9
Proportion of cancer patient receiving the treatment	Local cancer	100 %		Calibrated
	Regional cancer	80 %
	Distant cancer	70 %
Age-specific 5-year survival proportion after diagnosis and treatment (%)ⁱ	Local cancer	0.29–71 %		Calibrated
	Regional cancer	0.24–78 %		Calibrated
Age-specific monthly probability of death	Complication of local cancer treatment	0.012–0.037		Calibrated
	Complication of regional cancer treatment	0.0098–0.028
	Distant cancer	0.28–0.83

Note:
^aBaseline values are monthly age-specific rates, unless otherwise noted
^bRange is age-specific rate calibrated with the assumption of unchanged natural progression and regression of HPV infection and cervical cancer
^cThe transition from healthy state to infection is a force of infection derived from the number of sexual partner change, HPV type-specific transmissibility (range: 0.353–0.41)
^dHPV human papillomavirus, CIN cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, HR high risk, LR low risk
^e70 % of women with CIN 1 regress to normal, 30 % to HPV
^f70 % of women with CIN2,3 regress to normal, 15 % to HPV, 15 % to CIN 1
^gImmunity represents the degree to protection each woman faces against future type-specific infection after infection after first infection and clearance. The immunity was assumed to be lifelong protection
^hThe annual probability of symptom detection corresponds to 15 % for local cancer and 85 % for advanced cancer
ⁱAge-specific survival proportion was calibrate, based on a mortality rate by Globocan [1]

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