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Table 1 Summary of input parameters for the model

From: The economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination strategies against cervical cancer in women in Lao PDR: a mathematical modelling approach

Parameters Baseline valuesa Rangeb Source
Progression
Healthy to infectionc HPV-16 0.000175–0.003148 0.0001426–0.00761 Calibrated
HPV-18 0.0004–0.000789 0.000102–0.00168
Other HR HPV 0.000206–0.004038 0.0001703–0.00911
LR HPV 0.000958–0.018412 0.00069–0.0537
HPV DNA to CIN1d HR-16 HPV 0.005194–0.00901   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.002793–0.004845   
HR-other HPV 0.007693–0.013345   
LR-HPV 0.002397–0.001222   
Proportion (%) of women who transition directly from HPV DNA to CIN2,3 HR-16 HPV 0.64   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.975   
HR-other HPV 0.966   
LR-HPV 0.98   
CIN 1 to CIN 2,3d HR-16 HPV 0.00951–0.012363   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.0051–0.00663   
HR-other HPV 0.00747–0.009711   
LR-HPV 0.000149–0.000222   
CIN 2,3 to local cancer HR-16 HPV 0.000151–0.00906   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.000264–0.01584   
HR-other HPV 0.000199–0.01194   
Local to regional invasive cancer 0.0200   [7]
Regional to distant invasive cancer 0.0250   
Regression  
HPV DNA to normal HR-16 HPV 0.09089   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.09089   
HR-other HPV 0.09272   
LR-HPV 0.09699   
CIN 1 to normale HR-16 HPV 0.03782   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.03782   
HR-other HPV 0.04575   
LR-HPV 0.01708   
CIN 2,3 to normalf HR-16 HPV 0.000798–0.000455   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.003556–0.011938   
HR-other HPV 0.002926–0.009823   
LR-HPV 0.001904–0.006392   
Other  
Immunity (%) (HR-HPV types only)g HR-16 HPV 0.66   [7]
HR-18 HPV 0.86   
HR-other HPV 0.59   
Annual probability of symptom detectionh Local invasive cancer 0.33   [7]
Regional invasive cancer 0.60   
Distant cancer 0.9   
Proportion of cancer patient receiving the treatment Local cancer 100 %   Calibrated
Regional cancer 80 %   
Distant cancer 70 %   
Age-specific 5-year survival proportion after diagnosis and treatment (%)i Local cancer 0.29–71 %   Calibrated
Regional cancer 0.24–78 %  
Age-specific monthly probability of death Complication of local cancer treatment 0.012–0.037   Calibrated
Complication of regional cancer treatment 0.0098–0.028  
Distant cancer 0.28–0.83  
  1. Note:
  2. aBaseline values are monthly age-specific rates, unless otherwise noted
  3. bRange is age-specific rate calibrated with the assumption of unchanged natural progression and regression of HPV infection and cervical cancer
  4. cThe transition from healthy state to infection is a force of infection derived from the number of sexual partner change, HPV type-specific transmissibility (range: 0.353–0.41)
  5. dHPV human papillomavirus, CIN cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, HR high risk, LR low risk
  6. e70 % of women with CIN 1 regress to normal, 30 % to HPV
  7. f70 % of women with CIN2,3 regress to normal, 15 % to HPV, 15 % to CIN 1
  8. gImmunity represents the degree to protection each woman faces against future type-specific infection after infection after first infection and clearance. The immunity was assumed to be lifelong protection
  9. hThe annual probability of symptom detection corresponds to 15 % for local cancer and 85 % for advanced cancer
  10. iAge-specific survival proportion was calibrate, based on a mortality rate by Globocan [1]