Future expenditure risk of silent members: a statistical analysis

Table 3 Adjusted odds ratio for future high-expeniture and the incremental expenditure for 2009 silent members

	Cohort^a			Claimants^b
	Odd Ratio^*	95 % Confidence Interval		Odd Ratio^*	95 % Confidence Interval
Top cost percentile during 2010
Top 1 Percentile	0.99	0.84	1.15	1.66^c	1.42	1.94
Top 5 Percentile	0.8^c	0.74	0.85	1.34^c	1.25	1.43
Incremental Effect on PMPY	-$323.08	-$345.54	-$278.07	$494.72	$461.63	$526.01
Top cost percentile during 2011
Top 1 Percentile	1.17^c	1.01	1.37	1.80^c	1.55	2.10
Top 5 Percentile	0.96	0.89	1.02	1.47^c	1.37	1.57
Incremental Effect on PMPY	-$88.22	-$133.59	-$42.84	$831.80	$763.38	$879.21
Top cost percentile during 2010 and 2011 combined
Top 1 Percentile	1.11	0.97	1.27	1.60^c	1.40	1.84
Top 5 Percentile	0.89^c	0.84	0.95	1.29^c	1.25	1.41
Incremental Effect on PMPY	-$411.44	-$491.53	-$348.55	$647.10	$570.87	$703.56

^aCohort refers to the group of members in the reported year who originated in 2009 and for whom Odds Ratio were estimated using all individuals originally assigned to the silent-member or low-expenditure member cohort in 2009, regardless of whether they had claims in that particular year. Persons for whom Odds ratios were calculated using only those individuals from the cohort who had claims during the specific year are referred to as “Claimants”
^bOdds ratios were adjusted by gender, age, percent non-white and percent with less than high school degree
^c p-value < 0.05

ISSN: 1472-6963