Cost-effectiveness of medical primary prevention strategies to reduce absolute risk of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania: a Markov modelling study

Ngalesoni, Frida N.; Ruhago, George M.; Mori, Amani T.; Robberstad, Bjarne; Norheim, Ole F.

doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1409-3

Table 5 Annual risk of acute myocardial infarction and stroke, background mortality and case fatality rates

From: Cost-effectiveness of medical primary prevention strategies to reduce absolute risk of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania: a Markov modelling study

No previous history of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or stroke
CVD risk
	Acute myocardial infarction				Stroke
Age	Low	Moderate	High	Very high	Low	Moderate	High	Very high
40-49	0.0020	0.0130	0.0160	0.0230	0.0020	0.0050	0.0060	0.0100
50-59	0.0040	0.0190	0.0230	0.0310	0.0020	0.0050	0.0070	0.0110
60-69	0.0060	0.0290	0.0310	0.0400	0.0040	0.0070	0.0100	0.0150
70-79	0.0060	0.0360	0.0380	0.0440	0.0060	0.0110	0.0150	0.0220
80-89	0.0070	0.0390	0.0430	0.0520	0.0110	0.0170	0.0220	0.0330
90-99	0.0080	0.0440	0.0480	0.0570	0.0190	0.0190	0.0360	0.0460
CVD risk with diabetes
40-49	0.0050	0.0140	0.0140	0.0290	0.0030	0.0060	0.0080	0.0130
50-59	0.0080	0.0210	0.0210	0.0380	0.0040	0.0070	0.0100	0.0150
60-69	0.0120	0.0270	0.0290	0.0440	0.0060	0.0100	0.0130	0.0200
70-79	0.0130	0.0290	0.0310	0.0460	0.0110	0.0150	0.0200	0.0290
80-89	0.0140	0.0350	0.0370	0.0570	0.0190	0.0220	0.0290	0.0420
90-99	0.0160	0.0390	0.0430	0.0620	0.0320	0.0290	0.0350	0.0630
With previous history of AMI or stroke
CVD risk
	Acute myocardial infarction				Stroke
Age	Low	Moderate	High	Very high	Low	Moderate	High	Very high
40-49	0.0021	0.0143	0.0184	0.0276	0.0023	0.0059	0.0072	0.0133
50-59	0.0042	0.0209	0.0265	0.0372	0.0023	0.0059	0.0084	0.0146
60-69	0.0063	0.0319	0.0357	0.0480	0.0045	0.0082	0.0120	0.0200
70-79	0.0063	0.0396	0.0437	0.0528	0.0068	0.0129	0.0180	0.0293
80-89	0.0074	0.0429	0.0495	0.0624	0.0124	0.0199	0.0264	0.0439
90-99	0.0084	0.0484	0.0552	0.0684	0.0215	0.0222	0.0432	0.0612
CVD risk with diabetes
40-49	0.0053	0.0154	0.0161	0.0348	0.0034	0.0070	0.0096	0.0173
50-59	0.0084	0.0231	0.0242	0.0456	0.0045	0.0082	0.0120	0.0200
60-69	0.0126	0.0297	0.0334	0.0528	0.0068	0.0117	0.0156	0.0266
70-79	0.0137	0.0319	0.0357	0.0552	0.0124	0.0176	0.0240	0.0386
80-89	0.0147	0.0385	0.0426	0.0684	0.0215	0.0257	0.0348	0.0559
90-99	0.0168	0.0429	0.0495	0.0744	0.0362	0.0339	0.0420	0.0838
Case Fatality rate
	Acute myocardial infarction		Stroke		Background mortality
Age	Males	Females	Males	Females	Age
40-49	0.3040	0.4070	0.3470	0.3520	40-49	0.0112
50-59	0.3110	0.4120	0.2480	0.1980	50-59	0.0120
60-69	0.3360	0.4300	0.2830	0.2520	60-69	0.0225
70-79	0.3670	0.4510	0.4200	0.4120	70-79	0.0467
80-89	0.4090	0.4840	0.6420	0.6650	80-89	0.1006
90-99	0.4510	0.5170	0.7920	0.8150	90-99	0.1458

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