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Table 3 Mean volumes of women screened, HPV tests, cytology tests, high grade or worse (ASC-H/HSIL) cytology results, colposcopies, and treatments for precancerous lesions (2015–2031) under different screening and vaccination assumptions (detailed method)

From: Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

   2015 2017–2021 2022–2026 2027–2031
  Vaccination Current screening program Current screening program New screening program % increase under new program Current screening program New screening program % increase under new program Current screening program New screening program % increase under new program
Women screened With vaccination a 2,297,161 2,429,487 1,412,933 −41.8 % 2,585,465 1,442,095 −44.2 % 2,737,383 1,498,228 −45.3 %
  No vaccination 2,300,662 2,436,693 1,430,693 −41.3 % 2,595,623 1,468,363 −43.4 % 2,750,112 1,534,421 −44.2 %
HPV tests With vaccination a 54,380 53,273 1,413,004 2552.4 % 50,653 1,442,838 2748.5 % 47,873 1,497,588 3028.2 %
  No vaccination 55,857 59,390 1,430,105 2308.0 % 63,263 1,468,317 2221.0 % 66,699 1,532,790 2198.1 %
Cytology With vaccination a 2,409,923 2,544,000 370,206 −85.4 % 2,702,457 323,456 −88.0 % 2,857,249 313,008 −89.0 %
  No vaccination 2,418,505 2,561,456 412,178 −83.9 % 2,727,996 391,910 −85.6 % 2,889,861 408,425 −85.9 %
ASC-H/HSIL cytology With vaccination a 31,002 30,661 16,607 −45.8 % 30,538 14,462 −52.6 % 30,671 14,100 −54.0 %
  No vaccination 33,532 35,399 19,504 −44.9 % 37,391 18,415 −50.7 % 39,406 19,307 −51.0 %
Colposcopies With vaccination a 77,508 76,462 95,367 24.7 % 75,740 82,677 9.2 % 75,566 78,421 3.8 %
  No vaccination 83,234 88,087 117,901 33.8 % 93,199 116,479 25.0 % 98,136 121,557 23.9 %
Treatments With vaccination a 20,011 19,214 17,593 −8.4 % 18,432 15,572 −15.5 % 17,895 14,694 −17.9 %
  No vaccination 21,984 23,254 21,745 −6.5 % 24,572 22,375 −8.9 % 25,871 23,395 −9.6 %
  1. aHPV vaccination as has been implemented in Australia; ie females from 2007; males from 2013; catch-up vaccination for females aged 12–26 in 2007–2009 and males aged 14–15 in 2013–2014. ASC-H: Atypical squamous cells, possible high grade lesion in The Bethesda System 2001; ASC-H is equivalent to possible HSIL in the Australian Modified Bethesda System 2004. High grade cytology results do not include those performed as a reflex test for women testing positive for HPV 16/18 at the primary test, nor those resulting from samples collected at colposcopy. Treatments are for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (does not include cancer treatments)