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Table 3 Mean volumes of women screened, HPV tests, cytology tests, high grade or worse (ASC-H/HSIL) cytology results, colposcopies, and treatments for precancerous lesions (2015–2031) under different screening and vaccination assumptions (detailed method)

From: Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

  

2015

2017–2021

2022–2026

2027–2031

 

Vaccination

Current screening program

Current screening program

New screening program

% increase under new program

Current screening program

New screening program

% increase under new program

Current screening program

New screening program

% increase under new program

Women screened

With vaccination a

2,297,161

2,429,487

1,412,933

−41.8 %

2,585,465

1,442,095

−44.2 %

2,737,383

1,498,228

−45.3 %

 

No vaccination

2,300,662

2,436,693

1,430,693

−41.3 %

2,595,623

1,468,363

−43.4 %

2,750,112

1,534,421

−44.2 %

HPV tests

With vaccination a

54,380

53,273

1,413,004

2552.4 %

50,653

1,442,838

2748.5 %

47,873

1,497,588

3028.2 %

 

No vaccination

55,857

59,390

1,430,105

2308.0 %

63,263

1,468,317

2221.0 %

66,699

1,532,790

2198.1 %

Cytology

With vaccination a

2,409,923

2,544,000

370,206

−85.4 %

2,702,457

323,456

−88.0 %

2,857,249

313,008

−89.0 %

 

No vaccination

2,418,505

2,561,456

412,178

−83.9 %

2,727,996

391,910

−85.6 %

2,889,861

408,425

−85.9 %

ASC-H/HSIL cytology

With vaccination a

31,002

30,661

16,607

−45.8 %

30,538

14,462

−52.6 %

30,671

14,100

−54.0 %

 

No vaccination

33,532

35,399

19,504

−44.9 %

37,391

18,415

−50.7 %

39,406

19,307

−51.0 %

Colposcopies

With vaccination a

77,508

76,462

95,367

24.7 %

75,740

82,677

9.2 %

75,566

78,421

3.8 %

 

No vaccination

83,234

88,087

117,901

33.8 %

93,199

116,479

25.0 %

98,136

121,557

23.9 %

Treatments

With vaccination a

20,011

19,214

17,593

−8.4 %

18,432

15,572

−15.5 %

17,895

14,694

−17.9 %

 

No vaccination

21,984

23,254

21,745

−6.5 %

24,572

22,375

−8.9 %

25,871

23,395

−9.6 %

  1. aHPV vaccination as has been implemented in Australia; ie females from 2007; males from 2013; catch-up vaccination for females aged 12–26 in 2007–2009 and males aged 14–15 in 2013–2014. ASC-H: Atypical squamous cells, possible high grade lesion in The Bethesda System 2001; ASC-H is equivalent to possible HSIL in the Australian Modified Bethesda System 2004. High grade cytology results do not include those performed as a reflex test for women testing positive for HPV 16/18 at the primary test, nor those resulting from samples collected at colposcopy. Treatments are for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (does not include cancer treatments)