Skip to main content

Table 2 Five-year averages and fluctuations in predicted volume estimates for HPV tests, cytology tests, high grade (ASC-H/HSIL) cytology results, colposcopies, and treatments for precancerous lesions, 2015–2031 (detailed method)

From: Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

 

Including vaccination effect

No vaccine effect

 

2015

2017–2021

2022–2026

2027–2031

2015

2017–2021

2022–2026

2027–2031

Women screened

        

 Mean

2,297,161

1,412,933

1,442,095

1,498,228

2,300,662

1,430,693

1,468,363

1,534,421

 Min

 

655,625

900,795

1,128,045

 

683,095

942,133

1,178,039

 Max

 

2,256,515

1,977,963

1,858,245

 

2,262,166

1,992,569

1,882,566

% fluctuation (−)

 

−53.6 %

−37.5 %

−24.7 %

 

−52.3 %

−35.8 %

−23.2 %

(+)

 

59.7 %

37.2 %

24.0 %

 

58.1 %

35.7 %

22.7 %

HPV tests

        

 Mean

54,380

1,413,004

1,442,838

1,497,588

55,857

1,430,105

1,468,317

1,532,790

 Min

 

658,946

900,189

1,127,018

 

685,697

940,671

1,175,952

 Max

 

2,248,033

1,980,721

1,857,781

 

2,253,235

1,994,633

1,881,146

% fluctuation (−)

 

−53.4 %

−37.6 %

−24.7 %

 

−52.1 %

−35.9 %

−23.3 %

(+)

 

59.1 %

37.3 %

24.1 %

 

57.6 %

35.8 %

22.7 %

Cytology

        

 Mean

2,409,923

370,206

323,456

313,008

2,418,505

412,178

391,910

408,425

 Min

 

272,018

279,994

287,389

 

320,588

359,966

392,498

 Max

 

462,288

357,152

333,685

 

490,507

419,585

424,015

% fluctuation (−)

 

−26.5 %

−13.4 %

−8.2 %

 

−22.2 %

−8.2 %

−3.9 %

(+)

 

24.9 %

10.4 %

6.6 %

 

19.0 %

7.1 %

3.8 %

ASC-H/HSIL cytology

        

 Mean

31,002

16,607

14,462

14,100

33,532

19,504

18,415

19,307

 Min

 

11,869

12,885

13,187

 

14,910

17,358

18,768

 Max

 

20,281

15,763

14,831

 

22,888

19,436

19,837

% fluctuation (−)

 

−28.5 %

−10.9 %

−6.5 %

 

−23.6 %

−5.7 %

−2.8 %

(+)

 

22.1 %

9.0 %

5.2 %

 

17.4 %

5.5 %

2.7 %

Colposcopies

        

 Mean

77,508

95,367

82,677

78,421

83,234

117,901

116,479

121,557

 Min

 

65,633

69,454

70,464

 

86,276

105,079

115,722

 Max

 

117,173

94,166

85,045

 

142,970

128,322

127,757

% fluctuation (−)

 

−31.2 %

−16.0 %

−10.1 %

 

−26.8 %

−9.8 %

−4.8 %

(+)

 

22.9 %

13.9 %

8.4 %

 

21.3 %

10.2 %

5.1 %

Treatments

        

 Mean

20,011

17,593

15,572

14,694

21,984

21,745

22,375

23,395

 Min

 

12,680

13,604

13,507

 

16,945

21,002

22,763

 Max

 

21,104

17,176

15,597

 

25,345

23,858

24,091

% fluctuation (−)

 

−27.9 %

−12.6 %

−8.1 %

 

−22.1 %

−6.1 %

−2.7 %

(+)

 

20.0 %

10.3 %

6.1 %

 

16.6 %

6.6 %

3.0 %

  1. ASC-H atypical squamous cells, possible high grade lesion in The Bethesda System 2001; ASC-H is equivalent to possible HSIL in the Australian Modified Bethesda System 2004. High grade cytology results do not include those performed as a reflex test for women testing positive for HPV 16/18 at the primary test, nor those resulting from samples collected at colposcopy. Treatments are for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (does not include cancer treatments)