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Table 2 Five-year averages and fluctuations in predicted volume estimates for HPV tests, cytology tests, high grade (ASC-H/HSIL) cytology results, colposcopies, and treatments for precancerous lesions, 2015–2031 (detailed method)

From: Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

  Including vaccination effect No vaccine effect
  2015 2017–2021 2022–2026 2027–2031 2015 2017–2021 2022–2026 2027–2031
Women screened         
 Mean 2,297,161 1,412,933 1,442,095 1,498,228 2,300,662 1,430,693 1,468,363 1,534,421
 Min   655,625 900,795 1,128,045   683,095 942,133 1,178,039
 Max   2,256,515 1,977,963 1,858,245   2,262,166 1,992,569 1,882,566
% fluctuation (−)   −53.6 % −37.5 % −24.7 %   −52.3 % −35.8 % −23.2 %
(+)   59.7 % 37.2 % 24.0 %   58.1 % 35.7 % 22.7 %
HPV tests         
 Mean 54,380 1,413,004 1,442,838 1,497,588 55,857 1,430,105 1,468,317 1,532,790
 Min   658,946 900,189 1,127,018   685,697 940,671 1,175,952
 Max   2,248,033 1,980,721 1,857,781   2,253,235 1,994,633 1,881,146
% fluctuation (−)   −53.4 % −37.6 % −24.7 %   −52.1 % −35.9 % −23.3 %
(+)   59.1 % 37.3 % 24.1 %   57.6 % 35.8 % 22.7 %
Cytology         
 Mean 2,409,923 370,206 323,456 313,008 2,418,505 412,178 391,910 408,425
 Min   272,018 279,994 287,389   320,588 359,966 392,498
 Max   462,288 357,152 333,685   490,507 419,585 424,015
% fluctuation (−)   −26.5 % −13.4 % −8.2 %   −22.2 % −8.2 % −3.9 %
(+)   24.9 % 10.4 % 6.6 %   19.0 % 7.1 % 3.8 %
ASC-H/HSIL cytology         
 Mean 31,002 16,607 14,462 14,100 33,532 19,504 18,415 19,307
 Min   11,869 12,885 13,187   14,910 17,358 18,768
 Max   20,281 15,763 14,831   22,888 19,436 19,837
% fluctuation (−)   −28.5 % −10.9 % −6.5 %   −23.6 % −5.7 % −2.8 %
(+)   22.1 % 9.0 % 5.2 %   17.4 % 5.5 % 2.7 %
Colposcopies         
 Mean 77,508 95,367 82,677 78,421 83,234 117,901 116,479 121,557
 Min   65,633 69,454 70,464   86,276 105,079 115,722
 Max   117,173 94,166 85,045   142,970 128,322 127,757
% fluctuation (−)   −31.2 % −16.0 % −10.1 %   −26.8 % −9.8 % −4.8 %
(+)   22.9 % 13.9 % 8.4 %   21.3 % 10.2 % 5.1 %
Treatments         
 Mean 20,011 17,593 15,572 14,694 21,984 21,745 22,375 23,395
 Min   12,680 13,604 13,507   16,945 21,002 22,763
 Max   21,104 17,176 15,597   25,345 23,858 24,091
% fluctuation (−)   −27.9 % −12.6 % −8.1 %   −22.1 % −6.1 % −2.7 %
(+)   20.0 % 10.3 % 6.1 %   16.6 % 6.6 % 3.0 %
  1. ASC-H atypical squamous cells, possible high grade lesion in The Bethesda System 2001; ASC-H is equivalent to possible HSIL in the Australian Modified Bethesda System 2004. High grade cytology results do not include those performed as a reflex test for women testing positive for HPV 16/18 at the primary test, nor those resulting from samples collected at colposcopy. Treatments are for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (does not include cancer treatments)