Table 1 Initial population health at 65 and transition matrix at 75 for men in 2050, under different health scenarios
From: The effect of trends in health and longevity on health services use by older adults
Population health for men at 65 | ||||
| Â | Share in 2050 | |||
Scenario | Good | Moderate | Poor | Deceased |
Baseline (1o, 1 ++, 2o, 3o) | 0.66 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
Compression (2 +, 2 ++) | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Dynamic (3 +, 3 ++) | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
Transition matrix for men at 75 in 2050 | ||||
State at t | State at t+1 | |||
| Â | Good | Moderate | Poor | Deceased |
Baseline | ||||
Good | 0.87 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
1o Expansion of morbidity | ||||
Good | 0.92 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.88 | 0.09 |
1 ++ Expansion of morbidity, high life exp. | ||||
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
2o Compression of morbidity. Transition | ||||
Good | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
2 + Compression of morbidity. Transition and initial | ||||
Good | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
2 ++ Compression of morbidity, high life exp. Transition and initial | ||||
Good | 0.96 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.96 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
3o Dynamic equilibrium. Transition | ||||
Good | 0.87 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.84 | 0.12 |
3 + Dynamic equilibrium. Transition and initial | ||||
Good | 0.87 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.84 | 0.12 |
3 ++ Dynamic equilibrium, high life exp. Transition and initial | ||||
Good | 0.87 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Moderate | 0.00 | 0.97 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
Poor | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 0.11 |