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Table 1 Summary of model inputs: baseline characteristics and treatment effects

From: Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin versus DPP-4 inhibitors as an add-on to Metformin in the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a UK Healthcare System Perspective

Baseline characteristic

Baseline value

Age (years)

57.51

Proportion female (%)

47.00

Duration of diabetes (years)

6.01

Height (m)

1.69

Proportion Afro-Caribbean (%)

6.20b

Proportion smokers

36.90

HbA1ca (%)

8.05

Weight (kg)

87.84

SBP (mmHg)

133.30

TC (mg/dL)

199.57

HDL-C (mg/dL)

44.09

Treatment effect

DAPA + MET

DPP-4i + MET

Insulin + METg

Intensified insulinc

∆HbA1cc (%)

−0.69

−0.61

−1.10

−1.11

∆Weightc (kg)

−3.36

−0.61

+1.08

+1.90h

∆SBPc (mmHG)

0d

0d

0d

0d

∆TCc (mg/dL)

0d

0d

0d

0d

∆HDL-Cc (mg/dL)

0d

0d

0d

0d

Probability of Discontinuatione

0.081

0.043

0d

0d

Probability. of hypoglycaemic events (symptomatic)f

0.031

0.046

0.011

0.616

Probability of hypoglycaemia (severe)f

0.0004

0.001

0.037

0.022

Probability of urinary tract infectionf

0.074

0.054

0d

0d

Probability of genital infectionf

0.123

0d

0d

0d

Event

Utility decrement

Source

Diabetes-related complications

  

Ischaemic heart disease

0.090

Clarke, 2003 [23]

Myocardial infarction

0.550

Clarke, 2003 [23]

Congestive heart failure

0.108

Clarke, 2003 [23]

Stroke

0.164

Clarke, 2003 [23]

Amputation

0.280

Clarke, 2003 [23]

Blindness

0.074

Clarke, 2003 [23]

End-stage renal disease

0.263

Currie, 2005 [24]

Hypoglycaemia

  

Symptomatic

0.042

Currie, 2006 [39]

Nocturnal

0.008

Currie, 2006 [39]

Severe

0.047

Currie, 2006 [39]

Adverse events

  

Urinary tract infection (UTI)

0.00283

Barry, 1997 [25]

Genital infection

0.00283

Assumed to be the same as UTI

BMI changes

  

Per unit increase

0.0472

Lane, 2012 [26]

Per unit decrease

+0.0171

Lane, 2012 [26]

Drug acquisition cost

Price per tableti

Dose per tablet/pen

Daily dose

Annual cost (£)

Dapagliflozin

£1.31

10 mg

10 mg

£476.92

DPP-4i (sitagliptinj)

£1.19

100 mg

100 mg

£433.57

Metformin

£0.02

500 mg

2000 mg

£23.46

Insulink (Insuman® Basal)

£0.47/day

300 IU

40 IU

£170.23

Intensified insulin

£0.70/day

300 IU

60 IU

£256.96

Diabetes-related complication costl

Fatal

Non-Fatal

Maintenance

Source

Ischaemic heart disease

-

£3,479

£1,149

Clarke, 2003 [21]

Myocardial infarction

£2,244

£6,709

£1,105

Clarke, 2003 [21]

Congestive heart failure

£3,880

£3,880

£1,360

Clarke, 2003 [21]

Stroke

£5,658

£4,103

£776

Clarke, 2003 [21]

Amputation

£13,359

£13,359

£771

Clarke, 2003 [21]

Blindness

-

£1,752

£742

Clarke, 2003 [21]

End-stage renal disease

-

£34,806

£34,806

Baboolal, 2008 [40]

Adverse event, renal monitoring and discontinuation costs

Cost input

Source

Severe hypoglycaemic event

£390

Hammer, 2009 [41]

Renal monitoring

£38.67

Assumed to incur one GP visit cost and a 24-hour creatine clearance determination [42, 43]

Urinary tract infection, genital infection

£36

Assumed to incur one GP visit cost [42]

Discontinuation

£36

Assumed to incur one GP visit cost [42]

  1. aValue was applied as the HbA1c switching threshold; it was considered to be a representative threshold value in real-world UK clinical practice as it was the average baseline HbA1c value of patients entering the phase 3 clinical trials that were included in the indirect comparison before switching to dual oral therapy
  2. bValue sourced from randomised controlled trial by Nauck et al., 2010 [19]
  3. ∆ Mean change from baseline
  4. c Effects apply to the first year after treatment initiation
  5. d No estimate available and/or zero value assumed
  6. eProbability of discontinuation was applied during the first model cycle
  7. fProbabilities of adverse events were applied during every model cycle
  8. gMonami, 2008 [44]
  9. ‡‡NICE HTA report Chapter 4 [45]
  10. hWeight change from Montanana, 2008 [46]. Chosen as most recent study reporting weight effect included in the NICE HTA report
  11. iThe daily costs are based on pack costs and have been rounded. The source of the unit costs are England and Wales Drug Tariff costs, February 2012. These costs are in general consistent with BNF63 drug prices
  12. jSitagliptin is the most frequently prescribed DPP-4i in the UK (80 % of DPP-4i market as of December 2011, data on file)
  13. kThe cost of insulin was based on a patient baseline weight of 88 kg, which if it remained stable would equate to an annual cost of £170.23 (and £256.96 for intensified insulin). However, in the model, weight changed over time, hence the actual annual cost of insulin (with dosage according to weight) in the economic analysis varies according to the simulated change in weight. Insulin daily cost per kg = £0.0053, insulin intensified daily cost per kg = £0.008
  14. lPrices were indexed to 2011 using the Hospital and Community Health Services Pay & Prices index
  15. Abbreviations: HbA1c, Glycated haemoglobin; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TC, total cholesterol; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; ∆, absolute change from baseline; GP, general practitioner