Skip to main content

Table 3 Future prediction of cost of illness

From: Cost of illness of the Cervical Cancer of the uterus in Japan - a time trend and future projections

Model

Item

2011

2014

2017

2020

 

Estimated population (thousand person)

127,799

126,949

125,739

124,223

[% of 65 years or older]

23.1%

26.1%

28.0%

29.1%

Fixed model

Number of cervical cancer deaths (person)

2,737

2,816

2,900

2,953

[% of 65 years or older]

49.6%

53.0%

55.5%

56.8%

Average age of death (year)

64.0

64.8

65.6

66.3

Direct cost (billion yen)

31.0

31.1

31.0

30.8

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

9.9

9.9

9.8

9.7

Mortality cost (billion yen)

119.0

118.5

118.1

116.3

[% of 65 years or older]

17.5%

19.3%

20.5%

20.8%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

43.5

42.1

40.7

39.4

COI (billion yen)

159.9

159.5

158.9

156.8

Linear model

Number of cervical cancer deaths (person)

2,737

2,611

2,598

2,553

[% of 65 years or older]

49.6%

48.3%

47.4%

45.0%

Average age of death (year)

64.0

63.1

62.8

62.3

Direct cost (billion yen)

31.0

23.1

20.8

22.2

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

9.9

6.7

5.5

5.0

Mortality cost (billion yen)

119.0

116.1

117.7

118.1

[% of 65 years or older]

17.5%

16.4%

15.5%

13.9%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

43.5

44.5

45.3

46.3

COI (billion yen)

159.9

145.9

144.0

145.3

Logarithm model

Number of cervical cancer deaths (person)

2,737

2,714

2,772

2,812

[% of 65 years or older]

49.6%

52.6%

54.0%

54.6%

Average age of death (year)

64.0

64.4

64.8

65.3

Direct cost (billion yen)

31.0

36.9

40.5

43.1

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

9.9

9.6

8.9

8.1

Mortality cost (billion yen)

119.0

113.3

114.0

113.4

[% of 65 years or older]

17.5%

19.0%

19.4%

19.2%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

43.5

41.7

41.1

40.3

COI (billion yen)

159.9

159.8

163.4

164.6

Mixed model

Number of cervical cancer deaths (person)

2,737

2,604

2,584

2,549

[% of 65 years or older]

49.6%

49.7%

49.3%

48.0%

Average age of death (year)

64.0

63.5

63.3

63.2

Direct cost (billion yen)

31.0

27.7

26.6

28.4

Morbidity cost (billion yen)

9.9

7.8

6.8

6.4

Mortality cost (billion yen)

119.0

113.3

113.5

113.0

[% of 65 years or older]

17.5%

17.5%

17.0%

16.0%

Mortality cost per person (million yen)

43.5

43.5

43.9

44.3

COI (billion yen)

159.9

148.8

146.9

147.8

  1. Source of estimated population, 2011: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Population Estimates 2014, 2017, and 2020: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Population Statistics of Japan.