Table 1 Model parameter descriptions and values

Mean

Alpha (Beta)

pSTEMI

Probability of chest pain patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Trial data: audited patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction/all patients with chest pain

0.036

4800 (130000)

pACSdisc

Probability of being discharged with ACS at a hospital with no CPU

External data [8]

0.012

7.55 (621.82)

Incmort

Probability of inadvertent discharge upon ACS mortality, compared to admission

External data [9]

0.03

10.92 (353.1)

Mean

Standard Error

mortSTEMI

Mortality of ST-elevation myocardial infarction at hospitals with no CPU

Modelled from trial onset to needle time data using Boersma equation [7]

0.1003

0.0004

CPUdisc

Effect of CPU availability upon probability of being discharged with ACS

Trial data: effect of CPU upon (re)admission of initially discharged chest pain patients

1.256

0.1962

cpu_STEMI

CPU availability impact upon mortality from ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Modelled from trial onset to needle time data using Boersma equation

0.0007

0.0013

routQALY

QALYs accrued up to six months after initial attendance at a hospital with no CPU

Trial data: Area under the curve for health utility for all patients attending a hospital with no active CPU

0.318

0.0038

cpuQALY

Effect of CPU availability upon QALYs accrued up to six months after initial attendance

Trial data: Effect of CPU availability upon area under the curve for health utility

0.0084

0.0129

ltQALY

Lifetime QALYs accrued by a typical patient with coronary heart disease

External data: Vergel et al [6]

6.829

0.3401

routCOST

Costs up to six months after initial attendance at a hospital with no CPU

Trial data: Mean cost per patient for all attending a hospital with no CPU

2405

63.5216

cpuCOST

Effect of CPU availability upon costs up to six months after initial attendance

Trial data: Effect of CPU availability upon mean cost per patient

-31

219.647

ltCOST

Lifetime costs of care for a typical patient with coronary heart disease

External data: Vergel et al [6]

10,079

2200