From: Assessing the impact of heart failure specialist services on patient populations
Varied factor | Original estimate (source) | Varied estimate (source) | New estimate of number of deaths prevented or postponed (% change from previous "best" estimate-33) | New estimate of number of readmissions prevented or postponed (% change from previous "best" estimate-57) |
---|---|---|---|---|
b-blocker uptake | 12% (local audit) | 34% (ref. [46]) | 27 (-18%) | 53 (-8%) |
b-blocker intolerance | 5.2% (ref. [29]) | 29% (ref. [4]) | 27 (-18%) | 52 (-9%) |
N-LEI eligibility | 85% (informed judgement) | 75% (conservative estimate) | 33 (0%) | 55 (-4%) |
Annual risk of death | 32% (data-linkage of HES to ONS mortality data) | 29% (ref. [47]) | 30 (-9%) | - |
Mean number of readmissions | 0.54 (HES data analysis) | 1.41 (ref. [5]) | - | 150 (+280%) |
Estimate of number of patients that can benefit from treatment | 286 (local hospital statistics data) | 358 (assuming 25% of of heart failure patients are not coded with heart failure primary diagnosis) | 41 (+25%) | 72 (+25%) |
RRR of all treatments | As per references [10,11,30,31] | 20% reduction in all estimates (assuming that such a reduction in effectiveness might be applicable due to overall reduced baseline risk compared to that reported in original trials) | 27 (-19%) | 47 (-20%) |