Modeling the impact of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Chinese infants: an economic analysis of a compulsory vaccination

Table 1 Probabilities and estimates associated with pneumococcal disease and vaccine efficacy in Chinese children ≤ 5 years of age

Variables	Base-case estimate*	Ranges for sensitivity analysis	Source
Annual incidence rates of disease
Pneumococcal meningitis (<2 years)	0.000051	Base ± 25%	[27]
IPD (3-5 years)	0.000142	0.000128–0.000156	[28]
All-cause pneumonia	0.12815	Base ± 25%	[2]
All-cause AOM (≤2 years)	0.412	0.012–0.64	[29]
All-cause AOM (3-5 years)	0.381	0.012–0.64	[29]
Proportion of meningitis in IPD	0.3333	Base ± 25%	[30]
S. pneumoniae isolation rate for pneumonia	0.08	0.02–0.268	[31]
S. pneumoniae isolation rate for AOM	0.392	0.292–0.49	[32]
Disease outcomes
Case fatality rate of meningitis	0.083	Base ± 25%	[2]
Case fatality rate of bacteremia	0.046	Base ± 25%	[33]
Case fatality rate of pneumonia	0.00526	Base ± 25%	[2]
Probability of disability caused by meningitis	0.07	Base ± 25%	[34]
Probability of deafness caused by meningitis	0.13	Base ± 25%	[34]
Probability of tympanostomy caused by AOM	0.059	Base ± 25%	[13, 35]
Serotype coverage rates of PCV-7
IPD	0.45	Base ± 25%	[27]
Pneumonia	0.763	Base ± 25%	[36]
AOM	0.648	Base ± 25%	[37]
Efficacy of PCV-7
IPD	0.974	Base ± 25%	[14]
Pneumonia	0.9	Base ± 25%	[14]
AOM	0.576	Base ± 25%	[15]
Relative efficacy of 2 doses	0.86	0.645–1	[38]
Relative efficacy of 3 doses	1	0.95–1	[24]
Birth cohort size in China	16,000,000	-	[39]

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