Table 6 Summary of results of the sensitivity analyses
Sensitivity analysis | Liraglutide 1.2 mg vs. sitagliptin | Liraglutide 1.8 mg vs. exenatide BID | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Difference in QALYs | Difference in costs [€] | ICER [€ per QALY gained] | Difference in QALYs | Difference in costs [€] | ICER [€ per QALY gained] | |
Base case | 0.19 (0.16) | 2797 (1468) | 15101 | 0.19 (0.16) | 1302 (1492) | 6818 |
Model time horizon: | ||||||
30 years | 0.18 (0.15) | 2857 (1428) | 15767 | 0.18 (0.15) | 1380 (1541) | 7874 |
20 years | 0.12 (0.11) | 2946 (1186) | 23797 | 0.12 (0.12) | 1531 (1218) | 12531 |
10 years | 0.06 (0.06) | 3569 (791) | 61595 | 0.05 (0.06) | 2306 (774) | 43977 |
5 years | 0.04 (0.02) | 3787 (452) | 106618 | 0.03 (0.03) | 2458 (516) | 84503 |
Discount rate: | ||||||
0% | 0.34 (0.31) | 2319 (2759) | 6776 | 0.36 (0.30) | 552 (2767) | 1529 |
6% | 0.13 (0.11) | 2879 (1057) | 22353 | 0.13 (0.11) | 1529 (1081) | 11754 |
Costs of complications: | ||||||
Increased by 10% | 0.19 (0.16) | 2694 (1605) | 14541 | 0.19 (0.16) | 1074 (1630) | 5625 |
Decreased by 10% | 0.19 (0.16) | 2902 (1323) | 15666 | 0.19 (0.16) | 1531 (1355) | 8020 |
Physiological parameters: | ||||||
HbA1c 95% upper limit | 0.23 (0.15) | 2411 (1565) | 10334 | 0.26 (0.16) | 798 (1500) | 3101 |
HbA1c 95% lower limit | 0.14 (0.16) | 3270 (1557) | 23725 | 0.12 (0.16) | 1947 (1500) | 15961 |
UKPDS creep of HbA1c for 5 years | 0.10 (0.15) | 3362 (1597) | 32756 | 0.10 (0.15) | 1922 (1613) | 18940 |
SBP 95% upper limit | 0.20 (0.16) | 2784 (1517) | 14086 | 0.21 (0.15) | 1142 (1500) | 5380 |
SBP 95% lower limit | 0.18 (0.15) | 2897 (1468) | 16246 | 0.19 (0.15) | 1375 (1444) | 7327 |
Lipid 95% upper limit | 0.22 (0.16) | 2744 (1541) | 12693 | 0.22 (0.15) | 1162 (1605) | 5373 |
Lipid 95% lower limit | 0.17 (0.16) | 2781 (1492) | 16577 | 0.16 (0.15) | 1459 (1525) | 9400 |
BMI 95% upper limit | 0.20 (0.15) | 2810 (1500) | 13823 | 0.20 (0.17) | 1274 (1484) | 6231 |
BMI 95% lower limit | 0.18 (0.16) | 2820 (1500) | 16030 | 0.18 (0.16) | 1269 (1460) | 7263 |
BMI benefit maintained | 0.25 (0.15) | 2759 (1476) | 11105 | 0.21 (0.16) | 1312 (1492) | 6408 |
Hypoglycaemia: | ||||||
No hypo disutility | 0.19 (0.16) | 2797 (1468) | 14867 | 0.18 (0.16) | 1302 (1492) | 7272 |
Disutility of −0.0052 for all hypos | 0.19 (0.16) | 2797 (1468) | 15118 | 0.19 (0.16) | 1302 (1492) | 6699 |
Treatment duration: | ||||||
7 years | 0.20 (0.15) | 3941 (1428) | 19773 | 0.20 (0.17) | 2114 (1557) | 10458 |
3 years | 0.19 (0.17) | 1329 (1500) | 7123 | 0.19 (0.16) | 275 (1460) | 1480 |
Greek cohort data | 0.12 (0.14) | 3008 (1775) | 24355 | 0.12 (0.15) | 1586 (1928) | 13424 |
52 week clinical data | 0.22 (0.17) | 2309 (1508) | 10564 | |||
Liraglutide delayed by 1 year | 0.12 (0.16) | 2340 (1581) | 19960 | - | - | - |
Liraglutide 1.2 mg cost &: | ||||||
100% of 1.8 mg efficacy | - | - | - | 0.19 (0.16) | −1473 (1492) | Lira. Dominant |
90% of 1.8 mg efficacy | - | - | - | 0.14 (0.15) | −1016 (1500) | Lira. Dominant |
80% of 1.8 mg efficacy | - | - | - | 0.08 (0.15) | −625 (1613) | Lira. Dominant |
70% of 1.8 mg efficacy | - | - | - | 0.02 (0.15) | −126 (1525) | Lira. Dominant |