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Table 6 Sensitivity analysis

From: Drug costs in the management of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in Canada

  mCRPC cost (per patient) Monthly mCRPC cost
  Mean (95%CI) Median (IQR) Mean (95%CI)
Scenario 1: Variation of the probability of transition from docetaxel to subsequent treatment
Current model    
  10% increase of transition to abiraterone $48,049 ($47,451-$48,778) $39,395 ($14,465-$77,508) $1,743 ($1,721-$1,769)
  20% increase of transition to abiraterone $48,096 ($47,467-$48,817) $39,669 ($13,888-$76,884) $1,766 ($1,743-$1,793)
  10% decrease of transition to abiraterone $48,026 ($47,253-$48,697) $36,064 ($14,006-$75,805) $1,707 ($1,680-$1,731)
  20% decrease of transition to abiraterone $48,049 ($47,125-$48,783) $36,402 ($14,407-$76,710) $1,706 ($1,673-$1,732)
Alternate model    
  10% increase of transition to cabazitaxel $102,998 ($101,424-$104,765) $92,113 ($16,165-$170,454) $2,814 ($2,771-$2,862)
  20% increase of transition to cabazitaxel $102,846 ($101,065-$104,960) $90,435 ($16,760-$171,956) $2,833 ($2,784-$2,891)
  10% decrease of transition to cabazitaxel $103,626 ($102,001-$105,506) $94,951 ($16,466-$171,206) $2,801 ($2,757-$2,852)
  20% decrease of transition to cabazitaxel $103,784 ($102,169-$105,513) $95,900 ($16,165-$173,512) $2,802 ($2,758-$2,849)
Scenario 2: 20% , 30% and 50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment after docetaxel
Current model    
  20% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $45,312 ($44,693-$45,873) $34,732 ($14,469-$71,373) $1,615 ($1,593-$1,635)
  30% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $43,925 ($43,302-$44,522) $34,592 ($13,888-$68,665) $1,565 ($1,543-$1,587)
  50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $41,182 ($40,607-$41,964) $32,188 ($13,649-$62,930) $1,467 ($1,447-$1,495)
Alternate model    
  20% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $99,887 ($98,628-$101,220) $90,204 ($15,764-$168,696) $2,705 ($2,671-$2,741)
  30% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $98,335 ($96,877-$99,735) $88,783 ($16,643-$164,680) $2,660 ($2,620-$2,698)
  50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment $95,227 ($93,735-$96,347) $88,644 ($16,584-$163,683) $2,577 ($2,537-$2,607)
Scenario 3: 50% , 70% and 100% received AA before mCRPC phase
Current model *    
  50% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $48,378 ($47,841-$49,042) $39,452 ($13,829-$76,165) $2,160 ($2,136-$2,189)
  70% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $48,459 ($47,750-$49,169) $39,452 ($14,006-$77,391) $2,233 ($2,200-$2,266)
  100% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $48,532 ($47,780-$49,329) $40,876 ($13,155-$75,612) $2,357 ($2,321-$2,396)
Alternate model **    
  50% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $113,645 ($112,019-$115,416) $109,405 ($37,800-$175,884) $3,433 ($3,384-$3,487)
  70% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $117,895 ($116,248-$119,549) $112,648 ($44,486-$174,101) $3,562 ($3,512-$3,612)
  100% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase $124,300 ($123,133-$125,472) $122,061 ($59,878-$177,657) $3,758 ($3,722-$3,793)
Scenario 4: Variation of the rate of patients transiting to docetaxel (Current model)/abiraterone (Alternate model)
Current model    
  90% of patients transit to docetaxel $51,936 ($51,147-$52,584) $44,070 ($17,843-$80,975) $1,893 ($1,865-$1,917)
  80% of patients transit to docetaxel $51,571 ($50,769-$52,390) $43,459 ($16,760-$80,710) $1,873 ($1,844-$1,903)
  70% of patients transit to docetaxel $51,106 ($50,399-$51,797) $42,377 ($16,333-$79,588) $1,851 ($1,825-$1,876)
Alternate model    
  90% of patients transit to abiraterone $117,515 ($115,852-$118,932) $115,641 ($45,674-$177,184) $3,086 ($3,042-$3,123)
  80% of patients transit to abiraterone $115,974 ($114,204-$117,959) $113,188 ($42,052-$176,342) $3,054 ($3,008-$3,107)
  70% of patients transit to abiraterone $114,245 ($112,716-$115,980) $111,760 ($37,922-$176,258) $3,022 ($2,981-$3,067)
  1. *mCRPC starts at docetaxel initiation for 50%, 70% and 100% of patients;
  2. **mCRPC starts at abiraterone initiation for 50%, 70% and 100% of patients;
  3. After AA: 10%, 20% and 30% of patients transit to AAwd, and respectively, 90%, 80% and 70% of patients transit to Docetaxel (Current model) and Abiraterone (Alternate model).
  4. Abbreviations: 95%CI 95% confidence interval, IQR Interquartile range.
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