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Table 6 Sensitivity analysis

From: Drug costs in the management of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in Canada

 

mCRPC cost (per patient)

Monthly mCRPC cost

 

Mean (95%CI)

Median (IQR)

Mean (95%CI)

Scenario 1: Variation of the probability of transition from docetaxel to subsequent treatment

Current model

   

  10% increase of transition to abiraterone

$48,049 ($47,451-$48,778)

$39,395 ($14,465-$77,508)

$1,743 ($1,721-$1,769)

  20% increase of transition to abiraterone

$48,096 ($47,467-$48,817)

$39,669 ($13,888-$76,884)

$1,766 ($1,743-$1,793)

  10% decrease of transition to abiraterone

$48,026 ($47,253-$48,697)

$36,064 ($14,006-$75,805)

$1,707 ($1,680-$1,731)

  20% decrease of transition to abiraterone

$48,049 ($47,125-$48,783)

$36,402 ($14,407-$76,710)

$1,706 ($1,673-$1,732)

Alternate model

   

  10% increase of transition to cabazitaxel

$102,998 ($101,424-$104,765)

$92,113 ($16,165-$170,454)

$2,814 ($2,771-$2,862)

  20% increase of transition to cabazitaxel

$102,846 ($101,065-$104,960)

$90,435 ($16,760-$171,956)

$2,833 ($2,784-$2,891)

  10% decrease of transition to cabazitaxel

$103,626 ($102,001-$105,506)

$94,951 ($16,466-$171,206)

$2,801 ($2,757-$2,852)

  20% decrease of transition to cabazitaxel

$103,784 ($102,169-$105,513)

$95,900 ($16,165-$173,512)

$2,802 ($2,758-$2,849)

Scenario 2: 20% , 30% and 50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment after docetaxel

Current model

   

  20% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$45,312 ($44,693-$45,873)

$34,732 ($14,469-$71,373)

$1,615 ($1,593-$1,635)

  30% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$43,925 ($43,302-$44,522)

$34,592 ($13,888-$68,665)

$1,565 ($1,543-$1,587)

  50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$41,182 ($40,607-$41,964)

$32,188 ($13,649-$62,930)

$1,467 ($1,447-$1,495)

Alternate model

   

  20% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$99,887 ($98,628-$101,220)

$90,204 ($15,764-$168,696)

$2,705 ($2,671-$2,741)

  30% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$98,335 ($96,877-$99,735)

$88,783 ($16,643-$164,680)

$2,660 ($2,620-$2,698)

  50% of patients received docetaxel retreatment

$95,227 ($93,735-$96,347)

$88,644 ($16,584-$163,683)

$2,577 ($2,537-$2,607)

Scenario 3: 50% , 70% and 100% received AA before mCRPC phase

Current model *

   

  50% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$48,378 ($47,841-$49,042)

$39,452 ($13,829-$76,165)

$2,160 ($2,136-$2,189)

  70% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$48,459 ($47,750-$49,169)

$39,452 ($14,006-$77,391)

$2,233 ($2,200-$2,266)

  100% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$48,532 ($47,780-$49,329)

$40,876 ($13,155-$75,612)

$2,357 ($2,321-$2,396)

Alternate model **

   

  50% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$113,645 ($112,019-$115,416)

$109,405 ($37,800-$175,884)

$3,433 ($3,384-$3,487)

  70% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$117,895 ($116,248-$119,549)

$112,648 ($44,486-$174,101)

$3,562 ($3,512-$3,612)

  100% of patients received AA before entering mCRPC phase

$124,300 ($123,133-$125,472)

$122,061 ($59,878-$177,657)

$3,758 ($3,722-$3,793)

Scenario 4: Variation of the rate of patients transiting to docetaxel (Current model)/abiraterone (Alternate model) †

Current model

   

  90% of patients transit to docetaxel

$51,936 ($51,147-$52,584)

$44,070 ($17,843-$80,975)

$1,893 ($1,865-$1,917)

  80% of patients transit to docetaxel

$51,571 ($50,769-$52,390)

$43,459 ($16,760-$80,710)

$1,873 ($1,844-$1,903)

  70% of patients transit to docetaxel

$51,106 ($50,399-$51,797)

$42,377 ($16,333-$79,588)

$1,851 ($1,825-$1,876)

Alternate model

   

  90% of patients transit to abiraterone

$117,515 ($115,852-$118,932)

$115,641 ($45,674-$177,184)

$3,086 ($3,042-$3,123)

  80% of patients transit to abiraterone

$115,974 ($114,204-$117,959)

$113,188 ($42,052-$176,342)

$3,054 ($3,008-$3,107)

  70% of patients transit to abiraterone

$114,245 ($112,716-$115,980)

$111,760 ($37,922-$176,258)

$3,022 ($2,981-$3,067)

  1. *mCRPC starts at docetaxel initiation for 50%, 70% and 100% of patients;
  2. **mCRPC starts at abiraterone initiation for 50%, 70% and 100% of patients;
  3. †After AA: 10%, 20% and 30% of patients transit to AAwd, and respectively, 90%, 80% and 70% of patients transit to Docetaxel (Current model) and Abiraterone (Alternate model).
  4. Abbreviations: 95%CI 95% confidence interval, IQR Interquartile range.
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