Condition and model* | N | Prevalence of condition | Predicted probability threshold† | Sensitivity (95% CI)‡ | Specificity (95% CI)‡ | PPV (95% CI)‡ | NPV (95% CI)‡ | C statistic (95% CI)‡ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Among all eligible participants | ||||||||
Condition 1: High risk for CHD events | 6,615 | 49% | ||||||
Pre-specified | 0.55 | 0.69 (0.67, 0.70) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.87 (0.85, 0.88) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.77) | 0.86 (0.85, 0.86) | ||
Pre-specified + data mining | 0.52 | 0.71 (0.69, 0.72) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.90) | 0.86 (0.84, 0.87) | 0.76 (0.74, 0.77) | 0.87 (0.86, 0.88) | ||
Condition 2: Very high risk for CHD events | 6,615 | 14% | ||||||
Pre-specified | 0.28 | 0.63 (0.59, 0.66) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.90) | 0.52 (0.49, 0.54) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.95) | 0.84 (0.83, 0.86) | ||
Pre-specified + data mining | 0.26 | 0.66 (0.63, 0.70) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.90) | 0.52 (0.49, 0.55) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.94) | 0.86 (0.84, 0.87) | ||
Among eligible participants without history of CHD or risk equivalents | ||||||||
Condition 3: Framingham risk score >20% | 3,720 | 9% | ||||||
Pre-specified | 0.20 | 0.47 (0.43, 0.54) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.31 (0.27, 0.36) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.96) | 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) | ||
Pre-specified + data mining | 0.20 | 0.46 (0.40, 0.52) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.31 (0.27, 0.35) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.95) | 0.81 (0.79, 0.84) | ||
Among eligible participants at high risk for CHD events who were using statins | ||||||||
Condition 4: LDL cholesterol ≥100 mg/dL | 1,583 | 30% | ||||||
Pre-specified | 0.43 | 0.19 (0.15, 0.22) | 0.89 (0.86, 0.90) | 0.43 (0.38, 0.49) | 0.72 (0.70, 0.74) | 0.60 (0.57, 0.62) | ||
Pre-specified + data mining | 0.45 | 0.20 (0.15,0.24) | 0.88 (0.86, 0.89) | 0.43 (0.39, 0.48) | 0.71 (0.69, 0.73) | 0.62 (0.60, 0.65) | ||
Condition 5: LDL cholesterol ≥70 mg/dL | 1,583 | 80% | ||||||
Pre-specified | 0.88 | 0.19 (0.17, 0.23) | 0.86 (0.81, 0.90) | 0.86 (0.83, 0.89) | 0.21 (0.19, 0.23) | 0.59 (0.56, 0.62) | ||
Pre-specified + data mining | 0.88 | 0.25 (0.23, 0.27) | 0.85 (0.81, 0.88) | 0.91 (0.85, 0.91) | 0.23 (0.20, 0.24) | 0.60 (0.57, 0.63) |