Figure 2

Distributions of predicted probabilities of having a high risk condition or an uncontrolled LDL cholesterol condition (estimated by Medicare data) by observed presence or absence of the condition (REGARDS study data). Panel A shows Condition 1, high risk for CHD events, among all eligible participants. Panel B shows Condition 2, very high risk for CHD events, among all eligible participants. Panel C shows Condition 3, Framingham CHD risk score >20%, among eligible participants without a history of CHD or risk equivalents. Panel D shows Condition 4, LDL cholesterol ≥100 mg/dL, and Panel E shows Condition 5, LDL cholesterol ≥70 mg/dL, among eligible participants at high risk for CHD events who were using statins according to the REGARDS in-home visit medication inventory. In each panel the solid curve represents the distribution of predicted probabilities of having the condition among those observed to have the condition in REGARDS, the dashed curve represents the distribution of predicted probabilities of having the condition among those not observed to have the condition in REGARDS, and the vertical dotted line represents the predicted probability threshold corresponding to 90% specificity for identifying the condition. All results are from models using pre-specified Medicare variables only. Results from models using pre-specified variables plus data mining variables were similar (data not shown).